Probability help for house rules apoth please

[mattski]

Heya,

One thing has always got me about the backroom staff of the 'so called' professional B-Bowl teams and that has been how they deal with injuries and more specifically the apoths. Why is it that they try and save one player and then that is it. They're just out of there to go and play a round of golf or something (oh the stereotypes). I've never liked that so I wanted to create a set of rules in which every player that gets an 'injury' has a chance to be healed. But I need to know that I am not creating something which will drastically alter the % chances so that players are a lot less likely to actually get injured.

I have the rules. The only problem is that I am a humanities boy and, even though I did psychology for a year (a whole, looong year) at uni in which stats were a part of it I hated it and was no good at them (T-tests and the like, eh?). So if I put the rules here could some kind soul take a look at them and see what the probabilites are for me. Any other feedback would be appreciated as well.

With no further ado here are the rules:

Whenever a player is injured (BH or worse) then the coach rolls 2d6. If EITHER dice is a one then you check out the other die and look at the following table:

If player killed and second die: 1 - 5 player is SI'd / 6 player still dead

If player SI and second die: 1 - 3 player is BH / 4-6 player still SI

If player BH and second die 1 player into reserves / 2-6 player still BH.

I am using the injury rolls from Mad Lord Anarchy's league which can be found here as they totally alter what happens when you get a SI (some are fine, some have a % chance to play the next game, multiple game injuries, retirement, even death; they're great fun). But will this alter the blood too much? And what to do about the regeneration teams? Do they stay on 4+ to heal their wounds?

Any stats help greatfully accepted as will be comments. Thanks.

mat

[MadLordAnarchy]

I'm also a humanities person and managed to get through my economics without too much in the way of numeracy. I have absolutely no idea what the probabilities are from the actual ruleset as I've no idea what those rules are.

The probability of either dice being 1 is 31% clearly higher than the 16% of a single dice being a 1.

From there, the probabilities are:

Dead - 16% of 31% - 4.96%
SI from dead - 83% of 31% - 25.7%

SI from SI - 50% of 31% - 15.5%
BH from SI - 50% of 31% - 15.5%

BH from BH - 83% of 31% - 25.7%
Fine from BH - 16& of 31% - 4.96%

Approx

However, my rules make injured players less likely to miss the next match but that's caveated against the risk of something much worse happening.

[MadLordAnarchy]

I'm liking the idea generally of tinkering with the medical staff. My initial reaction would be to suggest allowing the coach to spread their staff around different players so assuming that Apoths are 50k then each 10k represents one number on a dice. A 1 is still therefore a failure. Coaches could then allocate each of their 5 points to players in the dead/injured box so an allocation of 1 point requires a 6 for that player. I haven't worked out whether that makes things too powerful or too weak but very glad to have come across this thread.