Narrow Tier BB - 2012

[DoubleSkulls]

That's my recollection too.

[spubbbba]

So the thread around increasing diversity in perpetual leagues applies? Given that out of the 8 most popular races on FUMBBL Black Box 6 are claw teams I think there is a clear indication that Claw is a problem child with regards to the balance of races at higher TV. So not addressing that directly feels like an omission to me.

Nor is there any evidence that Av9 teams are too good a higher TVs. Both Orcs and Dwarves are miserably low tier 1 over 2000, and although Dwarves are above average out of the box, that quickly drops off over 1500.

I’d be very wary of using data from Blackbox to gauge popularity.

It is a very specific environment which some feel brings out the worst characteristics of online play. Since you have no option on the teams you face off against and there are harsh penalties for refusing to play or quitting unnecessarily there is no disincentive to “play nice”.

Some people like that but it does tend to create a rather 1 dimensional style. In a small scheduled league (like in TT or their online equivalents) or an open league like [R]anked then there is a different type of meta-game.

[dode74]

the balance of races at higher TV

Why are we worried about high TV? TV-based MM is a house rule which limits (and allows you to limit) who you can play. In leagues (which is what I thought the game was designed for) it's about games played, not TV, so why are we not looking at that data?

I’d be very wary of using data from Blackbox to gauge popularity.

I would too, but the pattern of team popularity in MM and that in leagues is very close (based on OCC data vs B and FOL data). I'm certainly not saying the reasons are necessarily the same (I don't have cas data yet for OCC), but the pattern of popularity is.

[DoubleSkulls]

My idea is simply to make Big Bash (which I suppose cover both HighAV Bash and ClawBash) less of a dominant factor in high TV play...

Plasmoid cares about high TV... that's why I asked the question and put it in.

Regardless of whether high TV matters or not, I think there is clear relationship in those leagues we do have data for, for a preference towards teams with Claw access. I think there is a clear bias in favour of claw teams for all the long running leagues we have evidence for. That makes me think that an immediate method to increase diversity and playing styles is to weaken Claw.

Do you disagree or have evidence to the contrary?

[dode74]

Plasmoid also says this:

BTW I think the numbers can be a bit misleading - if we look at just HighTV play, we may be forgetting that some teams more easily than other attain HighTV, while others, even in long term play, are constantly at a lower TV, because of cheap players or constant MNGs. I mean: A team can be both developed and prospering without hitting TV 220.

I think there is clear relationship in those leagues we do have data for, for a preference towards teams with Claw access.

OCC top 5 teams by games played for seasons 7 to 11 inclusive (i.e. when 20 teams where available):
Orcs
Chaos
Dark Elves
Wood Elves
Undead
No such relationship in OCC.

Top 5 teams by games played in FOL overall (~45k games):
Chaos
Orc
Dwarf
Necromantic
Skaven
Possible relationship in FOL (Nurgle are 9th).

Top 5 races by games played in FUMBBL B:
Chaos
Chaos Dwarf
Orc
Dwarf
Nurgle
There is a relationship in FUMBBL B, but weirdly the high AV teams are not unpopular.

We looked at the correlations already. The correlation is between games played and the ability to cause and not receive casualties. Claw is a part of that, but it is certainly not the only part: if it was, we'd not see Orcs come out top, 2nd and 3rd in those leagues. So no, I don't think that altering claw is the solution because, as was said here, the aim is to reduce the casualties to low AV teams without increasing their overall win%, and a reduction of casualties by high AV teams without reducing the casualties to them - i.e. a relative survivability nerf to higher AVs.

From here:

Looking at the spread of teams what we actually need to do is make Khemri, Amazons, HE and PE more popular at the expense of the bash and claw teams. DE, Skaven, Lizards, WE, UD, Humans and Norse (and even Necros) are roughly where we want them. Chaos, Orc, CDs, Dwarves and Nurgle are the issue. The main things all of these have in common is no A access and LOTS of S access - ranging from all of the team (Chaos) to a minimum of 9 (Orc, CD, Dwarf, Nurgle), as well as almost universal G access (except big guys).

Lots of S and G access, with little/no A access. S access just screams POMB to me, which is why my suggestion is to prevent them stacking.

[plasmoid]

Hi Ian, Dode and all,

Plasmoid cares about high TV... that's why I asked the question and put it in.

True. I care about low-TV play because all leagues have to go through that stage. And I care about high-TV play, because it can easily become the majority of a league - it could go on [cue doomsday voice] ForEvaaaaar!

That being said, I've said elsewhere that I don't care that much about leagues where individual games don't matter, so you can just dedicate your first 40 games to building your team without any consequence. Like FUMBBL, I'm guessing

So the thread around increasing diversity in perpetual leagues applies? Given that out of the 8 most popular races on FUMBBL Black Box 6 are claw teams I think there is a clear indication that Claw is a problem child with regards to the balance of races at higher TV. So not addressing that directly feels like an omission to me.

Do you disagree or have evidence to the contrary?

Not sure I'd go so far as to call it evidence , but I certainly have a hypothesis that doesn't run counter to what we see.

As stated quite a few times, I believe the stats for POMB vs AV7 are broken-ish.
Claw teams can abuse this, because they can extend that broken-ness to every opponent, not just AV7 opponents.
But that doesn't mean that Claw in itself is broken.
As far as stats go, I think Claw is only broken in relation to that combo - and hence I stand by fixing it by fixing PO (because PO is also broken without Claw, against AV7)

If you look at just Claw+MB for bashing, you get 31,3% for KO+, and 14,4% for straight cas.
That's actually remarkably similar for what you get in CRP for using POMB against an AV9 player.
Sure, you get it without having to go prone, so the CMB is better, but I'm fine with that advantage. Certainly, nobody is whining about how terrible it is for AV9 teams to face non-C POMBers currently. I haven't heard Dwarfs complaining that the Orcs are POMBing them out of existence, or vice versa.

I may be wrong
But that's how I read the stats. So that's what I'll be testing.
Cheers
Martin

[DoubleSkulls]

I think stopping Mighty Blow stacking is the key, all I'd do is stop it stacking with Claw as well as Piling On.

I think there isn't much to choose between PO being injury only or Av only, except that I believe in practice Av only will not retain the casualty differential as well as injury will, because people without Claw will just not pile on against Av9 very often, making Av9 relatively too good at reducing casualties. If you look at the raw numbers assuming piling on all the time they end up about the same.

Code: Select all

LRB6   (CLPOMB)
Av   St       KO       Cas      Score
7+   24.2%    31.7%    26.8%    42.6%   
PO Av only   (CLPOMB)
Av   St       KO       Cas      Score
7+   38.4%    23.9%    20.3%    32.3%   
PO Av only, no stacking MB   (CLPOMB)
Av   St       KO       Cas      Score
8 +  27.5%    20.2%    18.3%    28.4%   
7    34.3%    22.2%    19.2%    30.3%   
PO Inj only, No stacking MB   (CLPOMB)
Av   St       KO       Cas      Score
8+   10.1%    17.1%    14.5%    23.0%   
7    15.8%    23.7%    18.9%    30.7%   

LRB6   (CLMB)
Av   St       KO       Cas      Score
7+   27.1%    16.9%    14.4%    22.8%   
PO Av only   (CLMB)
Av   St       KO       Cas      Score
7+   27.1%    16.9%    14.4%    22.8%   
PO Av only, no stacking MB   (CLMB)
Av   St       KO       Cas      Score
8+   17.4%    12.7%    11.6%    17.9%   
7    27.1%    16.9%    14.4%    22.8%   
PO Inj only, No stacking MB   (CLMB)
Av   St       KO       Cas      Score
8+   17.4%    12.7%    11.6%    17.9%   
7    27.1%    16.9%    14.4%    22.8%   

LRB6   (POMB)
Av   St       KO       Cas      Score
9    16.4%    17.3%    14.2%    22.8%   
8    21.0%    24.5%    20.4%    32.7%   
7    24.2%    31.7%    26.8%    42.6%   
PO Av only   (POMB)
Av   St       KO       Cas      Score
9    23.1%    13.6%    11.2%    17.9%   
8    31.2%    18.9%    15.9%    25.4%   
7    38.4%    23.9%    20.3%    32.3%   
PO Av only, no stacking MB   (POMB)
Av   St       KO       Cas      Score
9    18.4%    11.5%     9.8%    15.6%   
8    26.4%    16.9%    14.5%    23.0%   
7    34.3%    22.2%    19.2%    30.3%   
PO Inj only, No stacking MB   (POMB)
Av   St       KO       Cas      Score
9     7.8%    11.2%     8.7%    14.3%   
8    11.5%    16.9%    13.3%    21.7%   
7    15.8%    23.7%    18.9%    30.7%  

Here are the POMB stats factoring in reduced chances of piling on against higher Av.

Code: Select all

LRB6   (POMB)
Av   St       KO       Cas      Score
9     9.1%    13.0%    10.7%    17.2%   
8    15.3%    21.0%    17.5%    28.0%   
7    23.1%    31.0%    26.2%    41.7%   
PO Av only   (POMB)
Av   St       KO       Cas      Score
9    15.9%     9.3%     7.6%    12.3%   
8    25.4%    15.5%    13.0%    20.7%   
7    37.2%    23.2%    19.7%    31.4%   
PO Av only, no stacking MB   (POMB)
Av   St       KO       Cas      Score
9    14.7%     8.8%     7.3%    11.7%   
8    23.0%    14.4%    12.3%    19.5%   
7    33.6%    21.7%    18.7%    29.5%   
PO Inj only, No stacking MB   (POMB)
Av   St       KO       Cas      Score
9     7.8%    11.2%     8.7%    14.3%   
8    11.5%    16.9%    13.3%    21.7%   
7    15.8%    23.7%    18.9%    30.7%   

[DoubleSkulls]

If you look at just Claw+MB for bashing, you get 31,3% for KO+, and 14,4% for straight cas.
That's actually remarkably similar for what you get in CRP for using POMB against an AV9 player.
Sure, you get it without having to go prone, so the CMB is better, but I'm fine with that advantage. Certainly, nobody is whining about how terrible it is for AV9 teams to face non-C POMBers currently. I haven't heard Dwarfs complaining that the Orcs are POMBing them out of existence, or vice versa.

I think my issue is that my making Piling On worse you give Claw teams a bigger advantage in the bash war than they have today, hence people will play Chaos and the other Claw teams more, at the expense of Orcs and Dwarves. Only by simultaneously weakening Claw will you encourage movement away from all of those into the teams you are targeting.

[koadah]

If you weaken POMB you are making humans & zons a lot less fun to play IMO.

[dode74]

I think my issue is that my making Piling On worse you give Claw teams a bigger advantage in the bash war than they have today, hence people will play Chaos and the other Claw teams more, at the expense of Orcs and Dwarves. Only by simultaneously weakening Claw will you encourage movement away from all of those into the teams you are targeting.

Not true. As I showed here, making it a +1/+1 instead of a RR is actually relatively better for AV7 compared to AV9, and consequently for teams facing claw. Preventing MB from combining with PO will then help reduce the overall attrition rates.

[nick_nameless]

...making Piling On worse you give Claw teams a bigger advantage in the bash war than they have today, hence people will play Chaos and the other Claw teams more, at the expense of Orcs and Dwarves. Only by simultaneously weakening Claw will you encourage movement away from all of those into the teams you are targeting.

Seems like this could all be fixed with a few simple changes.

1) Change Claw skill, adding text: Claw and Mighty Blow may not be used to modify the same armor roll.
2) Change the mighty blow skill, adding text: Claw and Mighty Blow may not be used to modify the same armor roll. Mighty Blow may still be used on the injury roll if it is not used in favor of Claw on the armor roll
3) Change the Piling On skill, adding text: A player piling on may not modify the die roll or armor value using any skill.

Takes away the stacking effects. Claw, Mighty Blow and Piling On can't all three be used within a sequence. Claw is still useful versus high AV teams. Mighty Blow is still the most versatile. Piling On gives options.

[legowarrior]

...making Piling On worse you give Claw teams a bigger advantage in the bash war than they have today, hence people will play Chaos and the other Claw teams more, at the expense of Orcs and Dwarves. Only by simultaneously weakening Claw will you encourage movement away from all of those into the teams you are targeting.

Seems like this could all be fixed with a few simple changes.

1) Change Claw skill, adding text: Claw and Mighty Blow may not be used to modify the same armor roll.
2) Change the mighty blow skill, adding text: Claw and Mighty Blow may not be used to modify the same armor roll. Mighty Blow may still be used on the injury roll if it is not used in favor of Claw on the armor roll
3) Change the Piling On skill, adding text: A player piling on may not modify the die roll or armor value using any skill.

Takes away the stacking effects. Claw, Mighty Blow and Piling On can't all three be used within a sequence. Claw is still useful versus high AV teams. Mighty Blow is still the most versatile. Piling On gives options.

I like this.

[plasmoid]

Hi Koadah,

If you weaken POMB you are making humans & zons a lot less fun to play IMO.

Heh, what's the old saying...?
Everybody wants to go to heaven, but nobody wants to die
While I'm sure those teams enjoy punching up teams weaker than themselves, in reality I think they'd be very happy to not get torn apart themselves.
Cheers
Martin

[dode74]

...making Piling On worse you give Claw teams a bigger advantage in the bash war than they have today, hence people will play Chaos and the other Claw teams more, at the expense of Orcs and Dwarves. Only by simultaneously weakening Claw will you encourage movement away from all of those into the teams you are targeting.

Seems like this could all be fixed with a few simple changes.

1) Change Claw skill, adding text: Claw and Mighty Blow may not be used to modify the same armor roll.
2) Change the mighty blow skill, adding text: Claw and Mighty Blow may not be used to modify the same armor roll. Mighty Blow may still be used on the injury roll if it is not used in favor of Claw on the armor roll
3) Change the Piling On skill, adding text: A player piling on may not modify the die roll or armor value using any skill.

Takes away the stacking effects. Claw, Mighty Blow and Piling On can't all three be used within a sequence. Claw is still useful versus high AV teams. Mighty Blow is still the most versatile. Piling On gives options.

That's a MASSIVE nerf to low AV teams, which is the opposite of what we are trying to achieve.

[Chris]

So no, I don't think that altering claw is the solution because, as was said here, the aim is to reduce the casualties to low AV teams without increasing their overall win%, and a reduction of casualties by high AV teams without reducing the casualties to them - i.e. a relative survivability nerf to higher AVs.

Just to point out the obvious. If you weaken the ability for a chaos team to beat up an agility team their win rate will go down and the agility team will go up. The agility players simply outplay bash players if they don't get bashed due to speed and agility. Do you think a C/N/CD or indeed other bash team can develope players who can counter developed agility 4 players? What is the alternative to block, mighty blow, claw, piling on when facing say a wardancer or other equally annoying block/wrestle, dodge, sidestep, fend, etc player? Block, tackle, mighty blow and say grab? Do you think it is as good?