Fouling by Numbers

[Tripleskull]

the only unconditionally losing situation if being sent off while not even breaking the armour

Not even true. You might wonna protect your star from getting beat up, in a game that is already won or lost

[khudzlin]

well, if you're trying to get sent off, fouling's not very reliable with an ejection probability that cannot be more than 11/36 (provided you have enough assists to guarantee an armour break)

[wesleytj]

To me, this whole topic is just a reminder of the sad state of affairs of just how far the pansies have taken the fouling rules and made them nigh-worthless.

Do I want to go back to standard 3rd Ed rules where it was silly not to foul every turn with a dirty player? No. But I think this thread is a startlingly clear indication that we've taken it WAY too far the other way.

Make Dirty Player +2/+2 again, and bring back IGMEOY. That meant you could foul once per half with some amount of safety, so it was still used strategically. After that, if your opponent wanted to foul you back and start a big foul war, then it's a gloves-off blood bath. This game is called BLOOD bowl, is it not?

[Joemanji]

This game is called BLOOD bowl, is it not?

No, it's called Blood BOWL. You need to wear a bowl on your head whilst playing or you lose.

Fouling with +2 and IGMEOY was silly. It was just a case of fouling with your DP (even under the eye) until he got sent off, then fouling some more with your other DP. Whoever has the most DPs = wins. The more players you get up in the game, the more value you get from a foul, so it was worth doing so even under the eye (still only a 41% chance of being sent off, as opposed to a 72% of a KO or worse with a +2 Injury roll).

[plasmoid]

>This game is called BLOOD bowl, is it not?
Coincidentally the same "argument" used when pro and team rerolls could be used with the +2/+2 DP = Crazy damage and almost no risk of getting sent off.

[wesleytj]

This game is called BLOOD bowl, is it not?

No, it's called Blood BOWL. You need to wear a bowl on your head whilst playing or you lose.

Fouling with +2 and IGMEOY was silly. It was just a case of fouling with your DP (even under the eye) until he got sent off, then fouling some more with your other DP. Whoever has the most DPs = wins. The more players you get up in the game, the more value you get from a foul, so it was worth doing so even under the eye (still only a 41% chance of being sent off, as opposed to a 72% of a KO or worse with a +2 Injury roll).

You present that statistic as though a KO is equal to an ejection. People fouled for casualties. Plus I'm sure you're making some assumptions with the numbers to get that...are you assuming that the armor will automatically be broken without using the DP bonus? If so, you're assuming you're using a significant amount of the fouling team's resources to do the foul. In that case, if they're going to put that many players into the mix, then yes there SHOULD be a significant chance of success.

I never saw people using the strategy you describe under the IGMEOY regime. People were loathe to foul when the eye was on them.

[wesleytj]

>This game is called BLOOD bowl, is it not?
Coincidentally the same "argument" used when pro and team rerolls could be used with the +2/+2 DP = Crazy damage and almost no risk of getting sent off.

Well, it's all a matter of degree, isn't it? Like I said, I don't want to go back to that, but I'm just saying the pendulum has swung too far the other way.

[Joemanji]

I never saw people using the strategy you describe under the IGMEOY regime. People were loathe to foul when the eye was on them.

Fair enough. But I saw it plenty, and saw how effective it was.

[PubBowler]

[quote="wesleytj]
I never saw people using the strategy you describe under the IGMEOY regime.
[/quote]

You were fortunate.

It was far the best fouling strategy in that ruleset.

[napking]

I know this is an old thread but I went and did the same calculations (just base stats for foul-ee) and got a slightly different result when using Sneaky Git.

EDIT: Plasmoid fixed my calculations. Offending portions are redacted.
Again, we are finding the 'pseudo' Armour value the foul-ee must have from assists in order for there to be higher odds for a KO than there are for a Send Off.

AV8
Odds for KO(+)
Roll 9+ on Armour (10/36) AND Roll 8+ on Injury (15/36)
(10/36) * (15/36) = 11.57%
Odds for Send Off
Roll 4,4 5,5 or 6,6 on Armour (3/36) OR Roll Doubles (6/36) when rolling For Injury (9+ for Breaking Armour) (10/36)
(3/36) + (6/36)*(10/36) = 12.96%

So, for AV8 when you are using Sneaky Git, you are still (slightly) more likely to get sent off than obtaining a KO or better.


I will return later with the relative odds of getting KO, or Cas versus getting sent off. These should be a bit more representative and will allow for some judgment calls. I have the numbers, just want to find some easy way to display them.

[plasmoid]

Well, I did these with nothing but a very basic pocket calculator, so it is quite possible that there are mistakes in there somewhere.

However, as far as I can tell, this isn't one of them.

You've included 4,4 as a sent-off roll against AV8. But it isn't, as it won't break armor.
So against AV 8, send-off is 10,19% while KO+ is 11.57%

Cheers
Martin

[napking]

Damnit, you are right Plasmoid. Thanks for the heads up.
So many cells and calculations, I musta convinced myself of that along the way. I just fixed those changes for my stats below:

As promised, here is the relative odds of getting a KO over being Sent Off. A positive percentage means that a KO is that much more likely to occur than a Send Off, while a negative percentage indicates the Send Off is more likely. The values within the brackets are the actual probability of obtaining a KO (KO percent | CAS percent).
This do not include Stunty or Thick Skull but I can do so if people ask for it.

Code: Select all

AV Value------No Skills------Sneaky Git-----Dirty Player-----SG + DP
--2         +23% (41|16)    +35% (41|16)    +76% (58|27)    +89% (58|27)
--3         +20% (38|15)    +31% (38|15)    +75% (56|26)    +85% (56|26)
--4         +14% (35|14)    +39% (35|14)    +70% (52|25)    +97% (52|25)
--5          +5% (30|12)    +30% (30|12)    +63% (47|22)    +87% (47|22)
--6          -8% (24|10)    +35% (24|10)    +51% (40|19)    +95% (40|19)
--7         -26% (17|7)     +14% (17|7)     +32% (31|14)    +73% (31|14)
--8         -46% (12|5)     +14% (12|5)      +3% (22|10)    +76% (22|10)
--9         -64%  (7|3)     -17%  (7|3)     -26% (14|6)     +41% (14|6)
--10        -81%  (3|1)     -17%  (3|1)     -54%  (8|4)     +50%  (8|4)

So, let's say I want to foul a human Lineman (AV8) and I have two assists (effectually an AV6). If my fouler has Dirty Player, the KO will occur at 40%, a Casualty will be at 19% and I will get a KO 51% more often than I get a Send Off (26% for the record).

I also want to explain the bouncing around in percentage for the Sneaky Git values, this is due to the changing number of Doubles on the Armour roll which result in a Send Off. You'll notice that the KO percentage keeps increasing but the percentage jumps when an extra 'detectable' double roll breaks armour.

[plasmoid]

Very neat
One (unfair) question: Why do you call AV AG?

[napking]

Because I'm a Wood Elf player and all I care about is crazy high Agility

Been looking at spreadsheets too much this week.

[funnyfingers]

I must say I don't like this chart a bit. When I foul, 90% of the time snake eyes will break the armor. That way I use DP on injury.

Also never really cared whether the opponent had thick skull. I fouled (withouth DP as both were rookie teams) a Bull Centaur on turn 2 crowding where I think a 3 could break armor and gave him -MA. An injury he has to carry though the 9 other matches in the tournament:)