Percentage of success in fouling?

[MVening]

Jural is correct. The ability to break armour is a factor in being sent off. On an unbeatable armour (trying to break a Mummy with three opposing assists), your chance of being sent off are 16.66'% (Obviously, you wouldn't, but that's just a hypothetical). Whereas kicking an Amazon with 6 friendly assists (auto beating armour), is a 30.55% chance.

I did a small chart for Frogbear a while back. Here it is.



It's unkeyed.
Left column datapoints are percentage.
Right row datapoints are modified armour of the kicked.
Blue waveform is chance of Stunned or better.
Red (was Yellow)* waveform is chance of KO or better.
Yellow (was Red)* waveform is chance of casualty or better.
Green line is chance of being sent off.

This doesn't take into account Thick Skull, Stunty, Sneaky Git, or any other damage based mods. I've been meaning to get around to that. Might do it this weekend.

Morgan Vening
* Thanks GorTex, I'm an idiot sometimes.

[Xeterog]

I'm assuming your red and yellow are reversed?

either that or the phrase "KO or better" does not mean what I think it means

[Xeterog]

How is it that the odds for being send off changes depending on AV?

It doesn't affect the chance of getting sent off at all - but it does affect the chance of removing your opponent from the pitch - the odds of getting a KO or Cas are worse if your opponent has thick skull - so the risk/reward ratio is worse.

I just noticed this... and it's not true. Even without sneaky git (as a matter of fact, it would make sneaky git useless if it was true ).

Basically, if you don't break armor, you only have a 1/6 chance of getting sent off. But if you do break armor, you expose yourself to a further 1/6 chance (a total risk of 11/36 if you break armor, 1/6 if you don't.)

The AV is important because there are more cases where you take the 11/36 rate instead of just the 1/6.

referring to the chart again (by Jural)

AV 6- 1/6 + (18/36*1/6) = 9/36 = 25.0%
AV 7- 1/6 + (12/36*1/6) = 8/36 = 22.2%
AV 8- 1/6 + (8/36*1/6)= 7.3/36 = 20.8%
AV 9- 1/6 + (4/36*1/6)= 6.7/36 = 18.5%
AV 10- 1/6 + (2/36*1/6)= 6.3/36 = 17.6%

With sneaky git, the odds of breaking armor are the same, but you are sent off less often, as follows:

AV 6- 3/36 + (18/36*1/6) = 6/36 = 16.7%
AV 7- 3/36 + (12/36*1/6) = 5/36 = 13.9%
AV 8- 2/36 + (8/36*1/6)= 3.3/36 = 9.2%
AV 9- 2/36 + (4/36*1/6)= 2.7/36 = 7.5%
AV 10- 1/36 + (2/36*1/6)= 1.3/36 = 3.6%

Let's take the 1st line:
AV 6: 1/6 + (18/36)*(1/6) = 9/36 = 25&

The 1/6 is the chance to get sent off on the AV roll.
the (18/36*1/6) is the chance to be sent off IF you break the armor roll
18/36 is the chance to break the armor
1/6 is the chance to get sent off on the injury roll. Since you only make the injury roll if you break the armor, you multiply the chances together.

So the odds of being sent off change with the AV value because the lower the AV, the more likely you will be rolling an injury roll---and rolling the injury roll gives you another chance at getting sent off.

I suspect these numbers are off slightly, as they don't appear to take into account both AV and Injury rolls sending you off (but I'm not sure a double ejection should be accounted for...hmm)

(Looking at the sneaky get line for AV 6. the only change is the 1st number=goes from 1/6 to 3/6, because when you use sneaky git, you only get thrown out if you break the armor...for AV 6, that would be on a 4/4,5/5,or 6/6...or 3 out of 6 times)

[wollfe]

[/quote]
(Looking at the sneaky get line for AV 6. the only change is the 1st number=goes from 1/6 to 3/6, because when you use sneaky git, you only get thrown out if you break the armor...for AV 6, that would be on a 4/4,5/5,or 6/6...or 3 out of 6 times)[/quote]

actually that would be 3/36 or 1/13=7.69% not 3/6 which is 1/2 =50%

basically your figures would imply that that sneaky gits would be sent of 50% of the time - which would make sneaky git a terrible skill

[Jural]

...I suspect these numbers are off slightly...

Naah, the numbers are right. The odds of breaking AV 6 actually 21/36. However, I subtracted the three doubles cases (4+4, 5+5, 6+6) to bring it to 18. The same modifier should have been applied to all the other values as well.

As for sneaky git, I think you made a typo... the odds change from 1/6 to 3/36

[Xeterog]

oops..yea, I did typo that..3/36 (doh!)

[Buggrit]

The odds of stunned/ko/injury will always stay the same unless you have dirty player and break armour on the foul. Modifying the armour value doesn't assist your casualty roll!