Fouling by Numbers

[plasmoid]

Hi all,
I recall seeing somewhere that for a foul to be "worth the risk", you had to reduce your opponent to AV5 or less. Having had nothing but bad luck with fouling, I wanted to examine the statistics myself.

Now, I know that there are lot more factors involved in fouling than simply "risk of getting removed" vs "chance of removing" - but still, the naked numbers are quite interesting.

So, I'd leave it to yourself to consider stuff like "on-pitch position", "exchange ratio", "depth of bench" etc, and simply compare the risks for getting a player removed from the pitch. The table shows what AV you need to reduce your opponent to, in order for you to have better odds of staying on the pitch than he has.

In the math, I've assumed that a dirty player would use his +1 to break armor if he had to, even if this means that his ejection risk will go up - because his chance of removing his target will go up more.
I've also assumed that a sneaky git with dirty player would not use the +1 to break armor, on an armor roll that would automatically get him sent off if he did.

So, in other words, this table shows what AV you need to reduce your opponent to using assists, in order to have a greater chance of removing him from the pitch than the risk of getting sent off.

Code: Select all

---------------stunty----normal----thickskull---
No skills      AV7        AV5      never!
Dirty Player   AV8  [6]   AV8      AV6
Sneaky Git     AV10       AV8      never!
DP + SG        AV11 [10]  AV11     AV10

Note that the bracketed [] numbers in the stunties column is the AV you need in order to have the odds on your side for causing a casualty(! ) not just a KO+. Stunties, look out!!

Cheers
Martin

[atropabelladonna]

Interesting, I havn't seen it presented in such a way. I like it.

[Quadrasonic]

I am not sure I am following you.

When you say "the AV you need to reduce your opponent to" you mean a target number equal to or less than a player's AV minus the number of assists you can give but plus the number your opponent can give, right?

[Levinas]

Very interesting stuff.

If you (or anyone else) have the time I'd like to see a similar chart that indicates the chance of getting both players off (it'd be useful for stunty coaches/zombies etc where it is often worth being sent off if you can take the opponent with you.

[plasmoid]

Hi guys,

>Interesting, I havn't seen it presented in such a way. I like it.
Thanks.
I like to know the odds of what I'm doing - and I figured so would other coaches.

>I am not sure I am following you.
Ouch. Now I'm not following you. Couldn't wrap my head around that sentence.
However, take the AV of your victim.
Reduce it by one for each assist (and increase by one for each defensive assist).
If you decrease it to the value in the table - or indeed lower, then you have better odds of removing than of getting removed.

>If you (or anyone else) have the time I'd like to see a similar chart that
>indicates the chance of getting both players off.
Dud - don't look at me, this took forever to do.
I only did it because I had a day at work, where my assignment basically was to stare into space for 6 hours. Yawn.

Cheers
Martin

[GalakStarscraper]

bump

[Marlow]

A lot of Coaches think Thick Skull does not have a use. This just goes to show it is great to stop you getting fouled!

[Joemanji]

Interesting, but missing many of the nuances. Removing your opponent from the pitch is not the same as being sent off, because much of the time your opponent will only be KO'd. With this particularly in mind, I'd want to know whether "better odds" means 51/49 or 80/20.

[plasmoid]

Fair enough,
but I've lost the scrap paper with the calculations, so I'll leave that hellish math to someone else.

Cheers
Martin

[landrover]

Fair enough,
but I've lost the scrap paper with the calculations, so I'll leave that hellish math to someone else.

Cheers
Martin

No, go back to that job where you had to stare into space for 6 hours and redo the calculations!

[PubBowler]

Interesting, but missing many of the nuances. Removing your opponent from the pitch is not the same as being sent off, because much of the time your opponent will only be KO'd. With this particularly in mind, I'd want to know whether "better odds" means 51/49 or 80/20.

I'd check Ian's "Putting the boot in" on the NAF forum as it has ratios which do a similar job.

[UncleBob]

With the new rules it is impossible to injure more players than having players send-off. The closest you can get is an almost one on one base by reducing the opponent to an AV of 4 and having Dirty Player and Sneaky Git.
If I'm not mistaken.

[Teydyn]

Edit: Duh... lol.. we play it wrong... thanks for the info

If you have enough assist to reduce the effective AV of a dwarf to 2, you always pass the armor roll and have a 10/36 chance to remove him from the field (KO) while only being sent of on 6/36. DP makes fouls more worth, Sneaky Git makes fouls worth without piling the players on.

[halinn]

If you have enough assist to reduce the effective AV of a dwarf to 2, you always pass the armor roll and have a 10/36 chance to remove him from the field (KO) while only being sent of on 6/36. DP makes fouls more worth, Sneaky Git makes fouls worth without piling the players on.

The chance of being sent off is much higher. 1/6 on the armor roll, which you still have to make, and 1/6 on the injury roll. 1-((5/6)^2) = 11/36, which is higher than the 10/36 of removing. That means that even reducing his AV to 2, it's a losing game.
And I just noticed that I forgot to account for the 1/36 of not breaking AV 2

[khudzlin]

it always depends what you're trying to do: in some situations, a stun would be enough even if your player is sent off (late in the half and it's the only player who can score/prevent you from scoring)

the only unconditionally losing situation if being sent off while not even breaking the armour