Safe Throw on Pro Elf Thrower

[Crivens]

This came up in discussion after a game last night and my thrower got his first skill upgrade.

My playstyle: the passing game where I often get two blitzers and two catchers in to their half and in my first turn they form a spread out L next to the sideline. Thrower (often with a lineman) way back in my half out of range of any D able to base him.

Next turn I'm passing to whichever catcher didn't get hit.

Almost always these are long pass' 3+ with the pass re-roll (I sometimes need to do 1 go for it to reduce the pass from a 4+).

Oponent almost always gets a interception on a 6.

So the discussion came up as to taking Accurate or Safe throw.

Accurate turns the 1/9 chance of failing the pass into a 1/36 (or the 1/4 long bomb into a 1/9)

Safe throw has a 2/3 chance of reverting the 1/6 interception.

Any other elf coaches out there crunched the numbers on this before?



Even knowing the numbers it seems to me to be a bit more complicated due to:

That 1/6 chance of interception is in alot of cases game losing.

You can try to blitz / block away the interceptors.

If you have someone closer you can (and I have done so before) throw to a closer lineman and have him run up to the catcher to hand off, hence avoiding the intercept but adding another 2+ (no catch skill) catch on the lineman. This option is situational, if the line man needs to make dodges the odds swing towards the direct pass more likely to succede.

Thoughts?

[Marlow]

If you have someone closer you can (and I have done so before) throw to a closer lineman and have him run up to the catcher to hand off, hence avoiding the intercept but adding another 2+ (no catch skill) catch on the lineman. This option is situational, if the line man needs to make dodges the odds swing towards the direct pass more likely to succede.

If I have a team reroll the Hand off rout is the one I usally take. Having four Catchers means I can usually find one of them (not a linesman) to throw to who can manouver to the Blizer/Catcher who then scores.

Thoughts?

Safe Throw is a nice skill, but using it is still another dice roll which you might fail. The Hand off route means the pass is easier (usually 2+). I would not take Safe Throw until at least the third or fourth skill, maybe not ever.

[Duke Jan]

The resulting chances of failure are 0.19 with accurate and 0.21 with safe throw. So roughly 1/5 for either of them, the question then is what you can do to reduce the chance of failure that will make either of them a success.

Chances of failure that you can affect are in reducing the range and the interception.

You can improve on the pass roll, reducing it from 1/9 to 1/36 chance of failur by a hand off. However, the catch roll is a bigger liability than the risk you reduce. So the alternative is to block away potential interceptors. Conclusion: take safe throw and try to get rid of the interception possibilities. Your chances of success are bigger to begin with anyway. Not sure you should even try to block away the interceptor since the difference in success rate is already small to begin with.

[Crivens]

I only have 2 Catchers currently, one died in my second game.

So you'd suggest going with Accurate and hope the opponent doesn't roll a 6? And living with this risk till I can get enough catchers to use one as a hand off ferry?

[Crivens]

Thanks for the advice Marlow and Duke.

I think I'll take safe throw, just because when I finally managed to pop the ball out of the necro cage last night the biggest thing I was worrying about was an interception. (no one available to pass it to that could have handed off to my catcher, and I had to throw the ball over the cage).

Also ag3 teams with no sure hands would much rather an interception than a ball on the ground that they will need to roll to pick up.

[Big Daddy]

I took safe throw on my pro-elf thrower to a recent tournament. I threw six intercepts in six games and they were all saved by safe throw. I think it is a solid skill to take on a thrower. Passing is an integral part of my pro-elf game.

On offense most of your speedy positionals are through the line looking to score. An intercept just about guarantees your opponent a TD as even the slowest teams can make good a 2 turn gap for your players to get into position to defend. A pass to a catcher with a re-roll up your sleeve gives you a re-roll on every part of the throwing and catching scenario and the safe throw is an unmodifiable roll, so tackle zones etc don't have any impact.

Take nerves of steel as a second skill and you have a passer who can get into the thick of it which can often pull your pass ranges down as well as the accurate skill does.

[mattgslater]

Safe Throw is also a good doubles selection on a PE Catcher. +2MA is just as good for a thrower as Pass.

[Crivens]

Safe Throw is also a good doubles selection on a PE Catcher. +2MA is just as good for a thrower as Pass.

Do you mean "Sure feat"?

[mattgslater]

No. By +2 MA, I was referring to the Catcher profile. What I mean is:

A Catcher has AG4, MA8 and Nerves of Steel. If the ball comes loose, he can be on it to pick up on probably a 2+ or 3+, maybe a 4 if it lands in the wrong spot. He can then chuck on a 2 to just about any close-by player, but sometimes he has to allow an Int attempt. At 16 points, with one doubles roll, you can have one of the best defensive throwers in the game (MA8, AG4, Sure Hands, Safe Throw, NoS, Catch if you want to hand off to him), and you haven't even dedicated a Thrower slot to him! Then you get SH on your first Thrower and Leader on the second, and you've got all your bases covered!

[Big Daddy]

I agree with Matt.

The PE catcher is begging for a double roll or two to become probably the best defensive thrower in Bloodbowl. The high movement and agility, coupled with NoS is a great combo for defense. Good coverage and the ability to squeak out a pass in heavy traffic = gold.