Why MB is so great on a single elf hunter

[mattgslater]

What makes MB a popular selection is that against an AV8 opponent, with 5/18 (27.8%) to break AV and 5/108 (4.6%) chance to Cas, MB generates 5/12 (41.7%) to break AV and 65/648 (10%) to Cas. Net gain 13.9% break, 5.4% Cas. Those gains aren't percentages of the previous odds to break or cas; they're just straight up pieces of the whole knockdown pie.

There are three ways to get your piece of this pie. You can run big guys, you can spam MB, and you can put MB on one high-mobility hunter type, like a Wardancer or whatever. I'm here to tell you that all are fine, but you get your best bang for your SPP buck in the latter case.

Over a whole league, the mean AV of all players blocked will probably be just under 8, so 8 can be used. The average AV of all players knocked down will probably be a little lower, as the light players dodge more. The average AV of a player knocked down by a high-mobility hunter-type player on a block will be even lower, because those guys often blitz or front on low-AV players for one reason or another.

What is this average? Certainly it's over 7. If it's 7.4, that means that you can think of AV breaks on 13 permutations. If you're looking to attach a value to MB on a mobile hunter, that means that instead of considering AV7-8, you're considering AV6.4-7.4. That becomes 31/60 (51.7%) to penetrate, and 163.6/1296 (12.6%) to Cas, as opposed to 13/36 (36.1%) and 13/216 (6%) to Cas. Net gain 15.6% break, 6.6% Cas. Compared to a Troll, who is stuck blocking whatever, or to an MB-spam team that hits everything with MB, that Wardancer turns an additional 2/83.3 SPP per block made. If he makes ten blocks per game, that's 0.25 free SPP per game over and on top of using MB to block AV8.

I don't think this is a huge groundbreaker. But the discussion of the relative value of MB on this type of player has been a frequent subject of debate, so I figured I'd lay out the math in favor as best I could.

[nazgob]

An interesting post. Certainly useful, but I would like to know if its worth it in a bash heavy league. For example, any chance of a line graph with average armour vs. likelihood of injury with MB?

and of course, while MB is more valuable on a mobile blitzer than a troll, does the cumulative effect of 5 MB accross an orc/human/chaos/dwarf team render the application a a single MB blitzer on a wood elf team pointless? most MB will be pretty maneouverable on those teams (dwarves not included).

[Smurf]

The advantage of removing players from the game is tempting.

I have seen the difference of lacking MB with the Elves and plenty MB (actually I have about 3 players with it) in my chaos team. The WE team over 15 games has 20 cas to their name and 13 games with my chaos team has netted 43 cas.

but you can pinpoint attack more quickly with a hunter MB. I took out an AG4 norse thrower, Ko'd the other one and this put the norse game on the back foot for ball movement.

I appreciate all the mathematical odds on the whys and wherefors but the increase chance of lamping some to the dugout is something to go for.

All elf blitzers (P/H/W/D) should try and go for it and DE should have it Witchelves too. But you have to wait for that double to pop up. I know I have and it hasn't arrived yet.

[mattgslater]

With bash teams, relative AV means even more. I run a fairly mobile Orc team, with two AV7-8 players. That means 9/11 of all my players (and if I'm playing well almost all the non-hunter knockdowns I take) are at AV9, for 1/6 to pen and 1/36 to cas. With MB, it's 5/18 to pen and 7/108 to cas. AV8 Throwers give up 5/18 (27.8%) to break AV and 5/108 (4.6%) to Cas; MB generates 5/12 (41.7%) to break AV and 65/648 (10%) to Cas. Yes, some blocks will be on the Gob, but some other blocks would be on Throwers and Gob, so let's just average it out to Thrower.

Vs AV9 w/MB
5/18 - 1/6 = +1/9 break
7/108-1/36= +1/27 cas

Vs AV8 w/MB
5/18-5/12 = +5/36 break
65/648-5/108 = +35/648 cas

Hunter bonus (AV8 adv less AV9 adv)
Break: 5/36-1/9 = +1/36 (2.9% of all knockdowns)
Cas: 35/648 = 1/27 = +11/648 (1.7% of all knockdowns)

11/648 doesn't sound like much. But put into perspective, it's 22 SPP/648 blocks. If you block 3/4 of the time, you'll get 11/27 SPP per game on an extra 0.2 casualties. That's a high standard, but if you're playing well it's not off by a lot. One cas per six or seven games, perhaps? On a margin over and above the more-than-doubling already accounted for, that's huge.

[sunnyside]

Oh come on. Are you saying you just have your thrower or gobbo hanging out where they can be regularly blitzed?

I think more likekly an Orc player with a devleoped team would only bring the thrower out on offense, and the gobbo would have more a "special teams" kind of application. Both would probably be pretty well protected on the field, especially when hunters are on the field.

My MB wardancer is working great against teams with lighter armored players, but against Orcs with the option of teamwide AV9 and dwarves with their high AV and thick skull, MB is still better, but I think it won't take much of a positional concern to make me opt to go with someone else with block/wrestle.

[Carnis]

Hey, you have a valid point.

I'm not sure this needed a thread of it's own, but the "hunter factor" (targeting of stunties, AV7ers) explains why players like this can reach insane CAS-rates (22%) and become such key pieces.

The thing to consider with elves though is the tradeoff. Basher teams can easily put MB on everybody, resulting in ugly teams. And they can emulate the "hunter factor" by taking claw.

But elves really become powerful with guard spam, too. Just having some 3-4 guard with blodge/ss can put cages to a crawl, or with some pushes from the opponent can end up your players surrounding the ball with 2die blocks.

The value of guard on an elf team on the other hand, is very hard to quantify. That's why it is also very hard to compare the picks.. My feeling is, the first fast AV7 elf in an elven team may sometimes be better off taking MB, whilst the rest should stick to guard.

[mattgslater]

Edited minutes after posting.

Oh come on. Are you saying you just have your thrower or gobbo hanging out where they can be regularly blitzed?

No, I'm talking up the value of mobility on Mighty Blow.

If you're playing a good Orc opponent with 9-10xAV9 and 1-2xAV<9, your average elf will almost never hit any AV but 9. Your leaping hunter will probably hit the Thrower/Goblin player(s) a lot more often than the others, because it's so easy to reposition him, and because he's so dedicated at smacking the soft guys around. This is even more true of Dwarfs, because if you take out the Runners early, you only have to score once to guarantee a win/tie, and twice to win for sure. Also, Slayers are more fragile than any AV9 player.

The major difference with taking on bashers as opposed to taking on speed and mid-range team is in the number of blocks made. EDIT:You're right that if you're playing an Orc team, you're not whacking on his Thrower 12x per game. It's probably more like 3-6. But I'd bet you anything 2-3 of them are with the hunter, for about 1/30 - 1/20 casualty, and twice that many SPP.

You see this phenomenon in sports. Look at any stud linebcker's game-by-game stats. His sacks mostly come against the softer OLs. You're less likely to get Cas against Orcs, and against good Orcs, you get fewer blocks, giving you even fewer Cas. Sure. But by the same token, this player can almost always hit low AV against, say, Undead or Necromantic teams. Vs. Nurgle, he'll never waste blocks. Vs. Goblin-heavy Orcs, he'll shine. So yeah, some teams you just can't scheme to beat on with elves. But even then, you'll get extra mileage from MB on this guy as opposed to the others.

[mattgslater]

But elves really become powerful with guard spam, too.

The way I see it, three is the magic number for Guard elves, or two if you have a +ST player. More than that, you're probably paying for a lack of toolbox value. But it takes three guys to be pretty sure you'll always have the ST where you need it, when you need it, at any stage of the drive, on either side of the ball. Beyond that and it's either insurance or an excuse for sloppy play.

Guard is interesting in that if you win the positioning war, or if you're highly mobile and willing to make a couple gut-checks, it doesn't really matter whether you have more than the other guy so much as it matters whether you have enough for your own scheme. It's kind of funny in that, for teams that have to out-bash each other, Guard counts as most of a ST point in what often turns into a numerical comparison.

[mattgslater]

An interesting post. Certainly useful, but I would like to know if its worth it in a bash heavy league. For example, any chance of a line graph with average armour vs. likelihood of injury with MB?

and of course, while MB is more valuable on a mobile blitzer than a troll, does the cumulative effect of 5 MB accross an orc/human/chaos/dwarf team render the application a a single MB blitzer on a wood elf team pointless? most MB will be pretty maneouverable on those teams (dwarves not included).

Spam MB is great. Big guys and spam MB do combo nicely, as the MB big guy gives you a leg up on your MB count. For Elves, who have to use most of their doubles on Guard, spam MB is not an option. It's not really an "either spam or hunter" so much as it's "MB hunter or no MB."

AV (Pen/Cas): Without MB : With MB +net gain% (+proportionate gain%)
For numbers game: use net gain
For SPP: use net gain
EDIT:For player removal: use proportionate gain

AV10 Pen: 1/12 : 1/6 +8.3% (+100%)
AV10 Cas: 1/72 : 1/27 +2.3% (+167%)

AV9 Pen: 1/6 : 5/18 +11.1% (+67%)
AV9 Cas: 1/36 : 7/108 +3.7% (+133%)

AV8 Pen: 5/18 : 5/12 +13.9% (+50%)
AV8 Cas: 5/108 : 65/648 +5.4% (+117%)

AV7 Pen: 5/12 : 7/12 +16.7% (+40%)
AV7 Cas: 5/72: 31/216 +7.4% (+103%)
AV7 Stunty Cas: 25/216 : 95/432 +10.4% (+90%)

AV6 Pen: 7/12 : 13/18 +13.9% (+24%)
AV6 Cas: 7/72 : 5/27 +8.8% (+90%)
AV6 Stunty Cas: 35/216 : 355/1296 +11.2% (+69%)

AV5 Pen: 13/18 : 5/6 +11.1% (+15%)
AV5 Cas: 13/108 : 71/324 +9.9% (+82%)
EDIT:AV5 Stunty Cas: 65/324 : 215/648 +13.1% (+65%)

[Smeborg]

I am open-minded. I like spammed Guard on elven teams. For me the ideal threshold number is 4 Guards.

I also like to hunt the ball aggressively on defense, rather than hunting players. So I might have 3 or even 4 players who can make sack attempts on the ball carrier, but the eligible one would be unlikely to be the one with M-Blow. So your maths does not work in a straightforward way for me.

I have observed that M-Blow works well on Wardancers.

While I normally take Guard, I have a decision to take on my developed DE team (2 Guards already). I have just rolled a double on a Blitzer with Dodge, Sidestep, Tackle. I am undecided - both Guard and M-Blow are tempting.

All the best.

[txapo]

The good thing of such a tactic, (I use it myself) is that you get a player who every time blitzes looking for nice targets. Of course he's targeted as well, but he get's many casualties for you. Much more!!

[mattgslater]

While I normally take Guard, I have a decision to take on my developed DE team (2 Guards already). I have just rolled a double on a Blitzer with Dodge, Sidestep, Tackle. I am undecided - both Guard and M-Blow are tempting.

I like the Blodge/Guard/SS combo, but I'd use this guy on the wing, and I don't like wing players with Guard, as they're so rarely in contact with more than one player on your turn. You can maneuver him into action, yes, but he's pricey, so you probably want to cover with him rather than dropping him into scrums. Also, with Tackle, this guy wants to be a headhunting threat, which speaks to Mighty Blow.