Risks of Turnovers in Blood Bowl

[Grogmir]

No its a good point antipixi - just another reason while those that are two seperate rolls are slightly easier than they look at first sight.


Personally I think Dwarf, (Block heavy coaches) should take the most from this.

So often I here/see elves dodging away from the LoS while Dwarfs pull out their beards. As you can see a 1 dice Block (with B) is pretty much on the same level as that elves 2+ Dodge. So at the end of the turn once everything else is done - hit!

I had another Dawrf player in that first league that didn't include 1 die blocks into his turn routine, he didn't make the play-offs,
The next season, after he incorporated 1DB's, he got to the semi's.

Grog

[Jural]

Simple rule of statistics fpr chaining probabilities together: Calculate the odds of completely succeeding (completing all rolls without failing.) Then subtract that number from 100%.

Why? Well, all the times you don't completely succeed, you have failed in someway!

In Blood Bowl, your turn ends if you have failed in someway, hence the odds of turnover.

As an example (with no re-rolls.)

My AG4 wardancer needs to leap into a square(3+), make an even die block (Same odds as a 2+), dodge to an empty square (2+), pick up a ball (2+), then go for it (2+).

So the leap he succeeds at 67% of the time.
The even die block he does not turn over 83% of the time.
The dodge succeeds 83% of the time.
The pick up succeeds 83% of the time
The GFI succeeds 83% of the time

Altogether, the odds of completing all actions are (.67*.83*.83*.83*.83) = 31.7%!

Therefore, the odds of turnover are 100%-31.7%= 68.3%

Obviously, that 68.3% number doesn't tell you anything about HOW he ends his turn. Did he fail the leap? Did he succeed on his block, kill the opponent, then fail to pick up the ball? Did he do everything well, then fail the Go For It?

[Jural]

By the way, in many cases, a partial success is almost as good as a complete success. So as long as you have your risk free moves out of the way, just go for it... if it is critical for the success of your team.

Here's an example from a game I played.

The Chaos Dwarves had the ball kicked to them, and fumbled on turn 1 (Sure Hands Hobgoblin grr....) Elves have swarmed the backfield in an all out blitz. But there is a way out! If I just Blitz one elf with a rookie Bull Centaur and knock him off the ball (2 die block without block, an 89% chance of success.) Then pick up the ball with my sure hands hobgoblin (should be an 89% chance with a Sure Hands re-roll... but this wankle makes you wonder...) then your Sure Hands Hobgoblin hands off to a second, AG 4 hobgoblin who has Pass (83%), who then throws a long pass to a waiting Chaos Dwarf who has a Bull Centaur around him and a hobgoblin, and none of them are in blitz range (odds of completing the long bomb are 75%, odds of catching it are 33%.)

Now the odds of making all those rolls with no turnovers is very low, without re-rolls an insane 16.3%. But with a single re-roll, it increases to a more manageable 31.7%.

However, one of the secrets to Blood Bowl is knowing that turnovers aren't always bad. In this case, I would judge it a success as long as the thrower got the pass away without fumbling (And hence away from the elves!) The odds of doing that, with a re-roll, are pretty good- 63.1%!

So it's not always about reducing or eliminating turnovers. Sometimes it's about knowing what types of failures are good failures.

But of course in the real game, my hobgoblin just failed both pick-up rolls

[ngoike]

I am not getting part of this.

A 2 dice block where I have block, is 1/36 of me causing a turnover (both are skulls)

A 2 dice block where we both have block is still only a 1/36 chance of causing a turnover isn't it?

How does the other guy having block increase your turnover risks?

[PubBowler]

The second one is when the dice are against you (i.e. he is the stronger) rather than the guy against you having block.

So Dwarf lineman blocking BOB: 30.60%
Dwarf Lineman blocking Goblin: 2.78% (and most likely 2 SPPs!)

[mattgslater]

Most likely 2SPPs? I think not.

3/4 to knock down.
5/12 to break armor.
5/18 to earn SPP.

3x5x5=75 out of 4x12x18=864. Factor out the 3, and you've got 25/288. That's just about exactly one in 11.5, or less than 9%. That Dwarf-on-Goblin block is only worth about 0.17 SPP.

[tenwit]

Bouf and Jural get 4 bonus points and this week's award for most useful collaborative post! Congratulations guys!

3 Bonus points and the award for most useful reply goes to Grogmir.

[Grogmir]

Bouf and Jural get 4 bonus points and this week's award for most useful collaborative post! Congratulations guys!

RIght that's it, I'm removing my reroll calcs.

[tenwit]

Sorry. Awards announcement amended.

[Grogmir]

LOL... Smilies got a little Grr there didn't they.

There's a few nicer ones! Thanks for the enforced shout out though!

[bouf]

Ya thanks,

I just read a good article lately about mitigating risk and thought that a list of the odds would be helpful to the rookies out there. (I actually learned a lot too as some actions were riskier/safer than I assumed)

I'll update the OP with the RR chances ASAP.

[Grogmir]

Cheers all, as a keen backgammon player all these 1 d 6's come easy. Risk/Reward is what the whole of backgammon is based on and the skills transfer very easily to BB.

I would just like to add a little disclaimer - obvious on a 3 dice block with a reroll the odds aren't 0.00% of failure so don't come moaning to me if you fail!

[sann0638]

Sticky this one, I would - maybe change the subject though?

[bouf]

Being that all the easiest actions are on the top... and almost all of those are Block rolls! It sure makes Dwarf coaches look lazy, eh?

Why try hard when you can make all these easy rolls instead...

~//~

Sorry, just $hi+ stirring!
I miss Snew!

[Jural]

RIght that's it, I'm removing my reroll calcs.

Seriously, I'm surprised someone took the time to do that! The other ones are straightforward, but I need excel (usually) to factor in multiple actions with re-rolls.

Nice one!