Risks of Turnovers in Blood Bowl

TuernRedvenom · Post by **TuernRedvenom** » Fri Jan 25, 2008 7:14 am

I just read a good article lately about mitigating risk

A link would be appreciated, I'm a curious fellow.

bouf · Post by **bouf** » Fri Jan 25, 2008 7:42 am

I'll see if I can find it...

Here we Go

Grogmir · Post by **Grogmir** » Fri Jan 25, 2008 10:03 am

Jural wrote:
Grogmir wrote: RIght that's it, I'm removing my reroll calcs.
Seriously, I'm surprised someone took the time to do that! The other ones are straightforward, but I need excel (usually) to factor in multiple actions with re-rolls.

Nice one!

stormmaster1 · Post by **stormmaster1** » Fri Jan 25, 2008 10:39 am

bouf wrote:Being that all the easiest actions are on the top... and almost all of those are Block rolls! It sure makes Dwarf coaches look lazy, eh?

True, but they also make more rolls. Repeated 2D blocks turnover eventually, whereas moving and handoffs/passes you have only a few rolls to turnover.

I think it's interesting that for an ST3 AG3 block player who is tied down by a ST4 player, you are more likely to turnover by dodging than by blocking.

Also the opposition block skill makes no risk to the turnover.

Jural · Post by **Jural** » Sat Jan 26, 2008 6:11 am

bouf wrote:Being that all the easiest actions are on the top... and almost all of those are Block rolls! It sure makes Dwarf coaches look lazy, eh?

This is 100% true for GOOD dwarf coaches. Bad dwarf coaches never turnover and still lose 6 to 1 as elves, skaven, and humans outposition them and get wide open running and passing lanes, which the dwarves can not recover from.

At the end of the day, MA 4 and AG 2 are real problems

Digger Goreman · Post by **Digger Goreman** » Sat Jan 26, 2008 4:08 pm

Thank Nuffle the "Uber-Munchkins" have some sort of restriction....

mattgslater · Post by **mattgslater** » Sat Jan 26, 2008 4:58 pm

Jural wrote:Bad dwarf coaches never turnover and still lose 6 to 1 as elves, skaven, and humans outposition them and get wide open running and passing lanes, which the dwarves can not recover from.

At the end of the day, MA 4 and AG 2 are real problems

Very true... except for the "to 1" part. They either lose 6-0 or 3-1, as one successful Dwarf offense knocks three failed ones off the clock (vs. Elves, anyway). Last season we had a Dwarf team w/only one win: half the time they still had a TRR at end of half!

bouf · Post by **bouf** » Fri Feb 01, 2008 3:29 am

Just for Fun...

What are the chances of a TO with your big guy?
If I have Block,
If I have Pro,
If I have Both,
If I have none...

1 Dice Block,
2 Dice Block,
3 Dice Block,

Code: Select all

~~~~~~~~~~|1Dice |2Dice |3Dice |
No Skills |33.33%|11.11%| 3.70%|
With Block|16.67%| 2.78%| 0.46%|
With Pro  |    ? |    ? |    ? |
With Both |    ? |    ? |    ? |

mattgslater · Post by **mattgslater** » Fri Feb 01, 2008 4:04 am

With Pro, assuming you use it only to re-roll skull/both down:

1d: 1/3 to have to use Pro, so 1/6 to fail, 4/6 to succeed (that is, not fall down), 1/6 to rr (4/36 to succeed). That's 10/36, 27.777...%, or the same as a 6+ roll on 2d6.

2d: 1/9 to have to use Pro, so 1/18 to fail, 16/18 to succeed, 1/18 to rr (8/9), or 10/162, or about 6.2%. Who needs a calculator when you've got the Golden Ratio?

3d: 1/27 to have to use pro, so 1/54 to fail, 52/54 to succeed, and 1/54 to get to 26/27. (27^2)(2) = (3^6)(2) = (729)(2) = 1458 permutations. 27 fail w/failed Pro, plus one more with successful Pro, so that's 28/1458. Factor out the 2, and you get 14/729, or a hair under 2%.

With Pro and Block:
1d: 1/12 +1/72 = 7/72 ~ 10%
2d: 1/72 +1/2592 = 1/72, really. That's about 1.4% or so.
3d: Whatever. About half the chance with Block alone (such an infinitesimal amount more that it's not worth calculating). Trusting the numbers above, it's a bit less than 1/400.

Block is definitely better for a Big Guy.

tenwit · Post by **tenwit** » Fri Feb 01, 2008 4:29 am

bouf, your table ignores the negatrait. Big guys have a smaller chance of turnover because some of the time, they're simply going to stand there.

You could almost say that Pro increases the risk of turnover. If you attempt a block with your big guy and fail the negatrait, there's a 0% chance of turnover. If you pro that, 50% of the time you can now block, and that means that there's a risk of turnover...

bouf · Post by **bouf** » Fri Feb 01, 2008 5:12 am

tenwit wrote:bouf, your table ignores the negatrait. Big guys have a smaller chance of turnover because some of the time, they're simply going to stand there.

You could almost say that Pro increases the risk of turnover. If you attempt a block with your big guy and fail the negatrait, there's a 0% chance of turnover. If you pro that, 50% of the time you can now block, and that means that there's a risk of turnover...

Alright... Now it's getting confusing...

I simply don't have the brain power to contemplate all these permutations on the pitch.

Code: Select all

~~~~~~~~~~|1Dice |2Dice |3Dice |
No Skills |33.33%|11.11%| 3.70%|
With Block|16.67%| 2.78%| 0.46%|
With Pro  |27.77%| 6.20%| 1.99%|
With Both |10.00%| 1.40%| 0.00%|

[/quote]
But thanks Guys!

Darkson · Post by **Darkson** » Fri Feb 01, 2008 8:45 am

http://www.irwilliams.com/ecbbl/blockin ... edee5c2922

mattgslater · Post by **mattgslater** » Fri Feb 01, 2008 4:11 pm

Oops. My numbers didn't factor in Bonehead.

I guess it takes one not to know one. Good luck.

Pug · Post by **Pug** » Thu Mar 13, 2008 5:23 pm

...and to conclude. If Nuffle hates the sight of you that day the stats won't be worth a trolls tit!

Oh-A-TOE-Ah!

sirsebstar · Post by **sirsebstar** » Tue Mar 18, 2008 11:07 am

anybody ever going to compute this so i can get a handy chanch calculator
I need an aplication on my phone so i can add a series of dicerolls and the machine gives me the propability.

sigh i feel lazy