Risks of Turnovers in Blood Bowl

[DoubleSkulls]

Something like http://www.irwilliams.com/ecbbl/gfi.php or http://www.irwilliams.com/ecbbl/blocking.php you mean?

[sirsebstar]

yes indeed, but then somewhat simpler
Like add a 2+ roll in there (AG4 quick pass, or even the odd AG5)
Also it works also for dodge's, but only 2+ dodges (assuming the gfi si on 2+)
Also I like to factor in thinks like, should I block or dodge followed by..

in short I like more options then the onces mentioned in those pages

[Pug]

I've heard the term of Half-Dice along time ago. Wracking my brains as best I can, I still can't remember what it entails.

I know it's probabilty etc etc.

Just a quick explanation to jog the old brain cells. Ta

[PubBowler]

I've heard the term of Half-Dice along time ago. Wracking my brains as best I can, I still can't remember what it entails.

Blocking a stronger opponent giving you two dice but your opponent chooses is commonly called half dice.

[plasmoid]

Ah, gentlemen, you need 2 things:

1) BB probability axiom
All plays have 50% chance of succes!
Either your play succeeds (50%) or it fails (50%).

2) ProBBability Calculator
This wonderful program was written by David Bergqvist and modified by Pink Horror. I don't think David is hosting it anymore, but fortunately I still own a copy:
http://home.worldonline.dk/nyskes/bbowl/probcalc.zip

Cheers
Martin

[PubBowler]

2) ProBBability Calculator
This wonderful program was written by David Bergqvist and modified by Pink Horror. I don't think David is hosting it anymore, but fortunately I still own a copy:
http://home.worldonline.dk/nyskes/bbowl/probcalc.zip

Doesn't work on my Mac (but it could be Uni IT secirity stuff).

[Darkson]

Doesn't work on my Mac (but it could be Uni IT secirity stuff).

Works from the Command line, so I'm guessing it's Windows only.

[s031720]

I dont find those figures to be right, am i doing something wrong?


We want to know how big risk there is of a turnover. A dice have:
1 skull, 1 both d, 1 "dodge", 1 clear hit, 2 push.

1 die against block, i dont have block: 2 out of 6, or 1/3 or 33.3%
Stated in the original post:
9) 1 die block (I don't have Block) = 33.33%

Ok, so that seem to be ok. But then:
2 dice against block, i dont have block: 1/3 times 1/3, 1/9 or 11.11 %
Stated in the original post:
15) 2 dice against Block (I don't have Block) = 55.56%
According to this, the more dice I roll, the bigger chance of a turnover. Wich intuitively strikes you as not right, dont it?

3 dice against block, i dont have block: 1/3 times 1/3 times 1/3, 1/27 or 3.73%
Stated in the original post:
18 ) 3 dice against Block (I don't have Block) = 70.37%

Am I doing something wrong? The probablity of a TO should decline the more dice you have to roll, since all you need is a result on either one of the dice that does not give a TO.

Edit:
I tried this in the propability calc. a few posts above, and it gives the same results. It calculates the probability X or more. A turnover is 2 out of 6, here translated to a roll on a D6 on 5 or more.

5 = 33%
55 = 11%
555 = 4%

So I think I am right and the table is off. Anyone else?

[Geoff Watson]

I dont find those figures to be right, am i doing something wrong?


We want to know how big risk there is of a turnover. A dice have:
1 skull, 1 both d, 1 "dodge", 1 clear hit, 2 push.

1 die against block, i dont have block: 2 out of 6, or 1/3 or 33.3%
Stated in the original post:
9) 1 die block (I don't have Block) = 33.33%

Ok, so that seem to be ok. But then:
2 dice against block, i dont have block: 1/3 times 1/3, 1/9 or 11.11 %
Stated in the original post:
15) 2 dice against Block (I don't have Block) = 55.56%
According to this, the more dice I roll, the bigger chance of a turnover. Wich intuitively strikes you as not right, dont it?

3 dice against block, i dont have block: 1/3 times 1/3 times 1/3, 1/27 or 3.73%
Stated in the original post:
18 ) 3 dice against Block (I don't have Block) = 70.37%

Am I doing something wrong? The probablity of a TO should decline the more dice you have to roll, since all you need is a result on either one of the dice that does not give a TO.

For 15 and 18 it's when the opponent chooses which dice (ie you're blocking a stronger player).

Geoff.

[s031720]

oh, haha :=)

bah, semantics..

[DoubleSkulls]

Have a look at http://slobb.doubleskulls.net/blocking.php

[Biff]

So, when fouling, what are the odds getting sent off, break armour etc?

[DoubleSkulls]

Look in the library on the NAF

[Biff]

Look in the library on the NAF

Nope, cant find it. Link?

[Smurf]

1) BB probability axiom
All plays have 50% chance of succes!
Either your play succeeds (50%) or it fails (50%).

I call this false. It's a stupid statement for people who refuse to understand probabilities. I heard a GW staff member say this about WH. I said you are not going to throw 2dice to get 10 are you, it's unlikely and out of desparation - the reply was "no I'd use 3 dice"... then you have altered the probabilities.

BB works on the forced error, therefore you shape probabilites to suit you, likewise your opponent is doing the opposite.