Talk Fantasy Football

Hi,

I was wondering whether someone has already calculated the odds for causing KOs or CAS using either Mighty Blow or Piling On?

I know that PO/MB makes a damn fine combo but what to take first? I'd think it's better to go MB first since you have to go down when using PO, but when PO is making more CAS...

Cheers

Tante Käthe

Always MB first, I don't have the exact numbers but also keep in mind that MB always works andwithout side-effects while PO can be countered and your player goes prone.

right...unless you have jump up (which you usually don't), piling on typically means you're only making half as many blocks, because the rest of the time you're standing back up and getting back into position, unless you're willing to throw your blitz at it.

and don't forget LRB5 jumpup isn't a guarantee to make the block, even then.

Yep, whilst PO is more deadly, MB has no side effects.

MB love, cant beat it

Nazgit wrote:Yep, whilst PO is more deadly, ...

Any numbers on this? I'm sure that someone has already calculated the odds .

In my Orc team I have given a Blitzer Jump Up on his first upgrade. So if PO really is more deadly I might even consider to go PO first (cause it's also cooler ).

Cheers

Tante Käthe

I've got some of the odds calculated. But I'm a psychologist not a statistician so I'm not confident in finishing the job off and putting them up.

Especially Piling On

Percentage chance of CAS

Mighty Blow
AV7 = 14%
AV8 = 10%
AV9 = 6%

Piling on
AV7 = 17% (7%)
AV8 = 12% (5%)
AV9 = 7% (3%)
(%) is chance of causing a CAS without using PO, and not ending up prone.

Doesn't look like a lot of payback for ending up on your backside but maybe the increase in stuns is worthwhile?

Percentage chance of breaking armour

Mighty Blow
AV7 = 58%
AV8 = 42%
AV9 = 28%

Piling on
AV7 = 66% (42%)
AV8 = 48% (28%)
AV9 = 31% (17%)

IMO Mighty Blow is the better deal. Of course Piling On after you have Mighty Blow may be a different story.

No guarantees on the calculations but should be correct.

@BooneC
Thanks !

So it's MB first and Po as third skill (if she lives that long... ).

Cheers

Tante Käthe

Tackle is an underated skill for causing CAS too, as many people with Dodge have AV7. That, and you can pick on stunties for the extra SPPs.

BooneC, where are you applying the Piling On reroll? Under what circumstances?

For the CAS calculation
Assume Knock down.
If fail Armour roll ... use PO re-roll ... then straight Injury roll.
If pass Armour roll and no CAS on Injury roll .... use PO reroll.
If pass Armour roll and CAS on Injury roll ... no need for PO reroll.
So I'm assuming you want CAS so much you are willing to reroll a KO.

Breaking armour is straight forward... I just assume PO re-roll is ised when the Armour roll fails.

BooneC wrote:For the CAS calculation
Assume Knock down.
If fail Armour roll ... use PO re-roll ... then straight Injury roll.
If pass Armour roll and no CAS on Injury roll .... use PO reroll.
If pass Armour roll and CAS on Injury roll ... no need for PO reroll.
So I'm assuming you want CAS so much you are willing to reroll a KO.

Breaking armour is straight forward... I just assume PO re-roll is ised when the Armour roll fails.

I'd be interested in the breakdown with MB, where you only use PO on the injury and only if you still have MB.

Pretty demanding crowd here:-)

In your very specific scenario which assumes you have already broekn armour without needing to use MB ...

With MB only for Injury Roll
CAS = 10/36= 28%
KO = 11/36 = 31%
Stun = 15/36 = 42%

With MB and PO for Injury Roll, assuming you always use PO on KOs and Stuns
CAS = 10/36 +(26/36)*(10/36) = 48%
KO = (26/36)*(11/36) = 22%
Stun = (26/36)*(15/36) = 30%

If you get to a situation where you have broken armour without using Mighty Blow, then Piling On does have a pretty significant impact on the odds of causing a CAS.

But you have just looked at the injury roll here. What I meant is the same as above (for different AV values, etc.), just with my special constraints. So there is still a possibility I don't break armor, etc.
Basically I'd be interested in your first calculation, just don't use PO to break armor, etc.