What better skill to injure opponents: MB or SF?

[JJB]

Take any player whose job is to hit the opponent and withstand hits - so no dedicated ball-carrier, thrower, etc. A blocker or equivalent, with st3 or above.

Mighty blow is the classic choice to increase the casualty count. However, it still requires plenty of luck to yield results (and the statistical benefit is more limited against players with av 8 or 9, instead of 7), and being in a situation where you can throw blocks in the first place.

However, with stand firm, if you haven't been knocked down after being blocked you are next to the opposing player, so you get a free block. And more free blocks = more chances to cause casualties, regardless of the av of the opponent.

What's your opinion?

[Joemanji]

Interesting. I'd love to run the numbers but I have to leave the house. Maybe someone will have done it by the time I come back.

[Ullis]

I think the fact that MB increases casualties by about 100% weighs too much here. You get to use MB on every Blitz and offensive kick off too. Furthermore, SF only helps if the result of the block that's thrown at your guy is a push. If you get knocked down you don't get to make that block.

[JJB]

I think the fact that MB increases casualties by about 100%[...]

That percentage looks very high to me, especially as it varies greatly depending on the AV of the opponent.

[Carnis]

Assuming a player has block AND one of the above skills:

Blocking, SF grants you nothing, but MB gives you about 100% increase in CAS rate. In exact numbers:

Code: Select all

AV    increase in odds,    abs. inc.|relative increase in odds
AV10: from 1,38% to 3,70% = +2,32% = +168%
AV9:  from 2,78% to 6,48% = +3,7%  = +128%
AV8:  from 4,63% to 10,0% = +5,37% = +117%
AV7:  from 6,94% to 14,3% = +7,36% = +106%
Same numbers for CLAW, just to compare:
AV10: from 1,38% to 6,94% = +5,56% = +403% relative increase
AV9:  from 2,78% to 6,94% = +4,16% = +150%
AV8:  from 4,63% to 6,94% = +2,31% = +49,8%
AV7:  no change, 6,94%    = +0% = +0%

Lets look at absolute numbers only though, and in ideal conditions!

When being blocked (with a player with block):
MB: gives you at maximum effectiveness against a blocking AV7 player who also has block: 1/36*7,36% increase = a maximum of 0,2% increase in cas while being blocked.
Claw: gives you at max (against a AV10 blocking player with block) 1/36*5,56% increase = a maximum of 0,15% increase in cas while being blocked.
Stand firm: gives you 15/36 chance of staying put, instead of being knocked over or your opponent rolling snake eyes. The other cases are = you go down 20/36, he goes down = 1/36. This 15/36 turns into a block next turn (assuming he cant block you again with another player, or the drive ends!). So, against blocking player with AV7 who chooses to block you SF grants you a 15/36*20/36*6,94% chance of CAS against AV7 with block = a maximum of 1,6% increase in cas while being blocked.

While blocking (against a player with block):
MB: gives you at maximum effectiveness against AV7 player with block: 5/9*7,36% = at maximum 4,08% absolute increase in cas while blocking.
Claw: gives you at max effectiveness against AV10 player with block: 5/9*5,56% = at maximum 3,08% absolute increase in cas while blocking
SF: grants 0% in any condition.

SO, in conclusion. If you play against block-skilled opposition (optimal for stand firm, suboptimal for MB/claw), you need to take about 2.5times more 2die blocks than you get to make yourself to turn stand firm into the better choice. Imo MB wins hands down. Claw beats it too, against AV9-10 opposition only, though.

The comparison above is not a perfect comparison, but I'm way too lazy to cover all the bases..

[Grumbledook]

Stand Firm has other uses, mostly positional, it isn't a skill I would take for casualty causing reasons

[mattgslater]

Yeah, Stand Firm is this great positioning skill, which incidentally improves your body count a little bit. Mighty Blow is a damage skill, end of story. Not exactly fair grounds for comparison. If you had put in your poll: "This is player X. He does this, that and the other thing. This is where I set him up. Which skill first?" I might have had to think about it. In most cases I think Stand Firm is more important than Mighty Blow, unless you're trying to spam MB. But just as a damage skill? MB wins hands down.

[JJB]

Carnis - thanks for running those stats.

Mattgslater - yes, the comparison was strictly for causing injuries in the narrow sense, and ot taking into account the other benefits of SF.

[mattgslater]

This is unscientific but my perception is that just for damage, ignoring utility, PO > MB > Frenzy > Claw > Block > Pro > Grab > Side Step > Stand Firm.