Talk Fantasy Football

To all you math fiends out there, can you crunch some numbers for me?

Which skill has the best chance of stopping a ST3-AG4 player with Dodge... Is it tackle, pre-tail or ST3 tentacles???

I want to see which skill is the most effective for a beastman/rotter. I have a hunch that tents aren't as bad as it would first appear, but I'm shi+ with math. :'(

To further that, can you crunch the numbers for AG4, AG3 & AG2, with and without dodge?
Hell, if you don't mind, can you crunch ST2 catchers as well?

Bouf - I would point out that this is not an "apples with apples" comparison. There are "pears" around in the form of (a) re-rolls, (b) turnovers, and (c) whether or not it is the last action of the turn. For example:

- Tackle negates Dodge, but if the dodger has a re-roll he is happy to burn, he is no worse off.

- Against P-Tail, the dodger is better off than against Tackle if he has no team re-roll to burn, but worse off if he has one.

- If stopping the dodger is more important than causing a turnover, then Tentacles may be best, but Tentacles on its own will not help you get a turnover (but it may help indirectly by burning team re-rolls and/or Pro).

- The dodger may not care about causing a turnover if it is the last action of the turn, whereas the situation is different early in the turn.

[As an aside, Tentacles odds are always compound, in that you have two rolls to make (Tentacles roll + dodge roll). If you further complicate by adding team re-rolls and/or Pro, you will have a moderately complicated set of tables. If you really want to complicate, you can try combining the skills as well...]

So, to sum up, maybe the question could do with some sharper definition first?

All the best.

Fair enough,

What I'm really after is the % chance to get out of a players TZ (ignoring team RRs)

To build a table,
down the left: AG4 with dodge, AG4, AG3 with dodge, AG3, AG2 with dodge, AG2
across the top: no skills, tackle, pre-tail, ST3 tents v ST3, ST3 tents v ST2

That should tell me which skill to spam onto my non-specialist players

Only because I like you Bouf, and you helped me with Ogres

I cannot 100% guarantee these to be correct (I challenge someone to prove me wrong! ), and none of them involve team RR (but hey, Smeborg, getting them to burn a RR is AWESOME).




The chance of getting past strength3 v 3 tentacles (rolling a 6+) is 72.22%

The chance of getting past stregth 3 v 2 tentacles (rolling a 7+) is 58.33%

So if you take 72.22 and minus the field in that column, then you will get the chance of a turnover (so it lowers the chance of them getting a turnover, but there is a better chance of them getting screwed over ).

Looking at that though, I would honestly take prehensile tale, as it both increases the chance of turnover/RR, and it also stacks as far as I recall! (I know as an elf, I would be incredibly iffy about a 4+ dodge out even with an RR). If prehensile does stack, then dodging out and into a tackle zone is a 5+ which means 55.56% chance to dodge WITH a reroll (45% chance of turnover ), a 66% chance of using a RR, so even if they pass the RR, they have to make a 3+ dodge out of the second prehensile tale .

There is also the psychological thing of "shit I don't want to try a 3+/4+ dodge", but if they just have tentacles then it's a "may as well try it, cause if he tentacles me it makes no difference"

Without psychological affects, then tentacles more reliably holds them there.

yumi_cheeseman wrote:(but hey, Smeborg, getting them to burn a RR is AWESOME).

I agree entirely. "Your re-rolls, we burn 'em" is a good philosophy. But I was thinking more of those turn 8/turn 16 scoring chances where it is the last critical action of the half, and the moving player has a re-roll.

We have ignored Diving Tackle in these calculations (also worth considering if a player already has P-tail).

A further consideration for Bouf to consider is that Tentacles is the only skill in the game that works against Leap (spot the Nurgle coach...).

I was thinking "If I have a team of dedicated killers, I want people to HAVE to fight them"

I don't want those pesky elf teams and gutter runners to get away from me any more!

I was talking about this to a Friend and he asked me to bump it

Enjoy

Your lucky I was curious about the answer too. %chance they get away clean. I used cheeseman's results for tentacles. I was surprised that tentacles is better then even two tails against AG4 dodging. Still Tackle makes them actually go down when you do hit them, and Tentacles doesn't cause turnovers, but if you just want to hug some elves, tentacles are the way to do it.

BoomFrog wrote:

Code: Select all

AG	   None	Tackle	Tail	Tents3	Tents2
4 (D)	97.2%	83.3%	88.9%	72.22%	58.33%
3 (D)	88.9%	66.7%	75.0%	72.22%	58.33%
2 (D)	75.0%	50.0%	55.6%	72.22%	58.33%
4		 83.3%	83.3%	66.7%	72.22%	58.33%
3		 66.7%	66.7%	50.0%	72.22%	58.33%
2		 50.0%	50.0%	33.3%	72.22%	58.33%

Your lucky I was curious about the answer too. %chance they get away clean. I used cheeseman's results for tentacles. I was surprised that tentacles is better then even two tails against AG4 dodging. Still Tackle makes them actually go down when you do hit them, and Tentacles doesn't cause turnovers, but if you just want to hug some elves, tentacles are the way to do it.

Your numbers don't give me any new info, cheeseman's has the same stats afaik + he has the tentacle results including the dodge (hence more comprehensive).

yumi_cheeseman wrote:Only because I like you Bouf, and you helped me with Ogres
There is also the psychological thing of "shit I don't want to try a 3+/4+ dodge", but if they just have tentacles then it's a "may as well try it, cause if he tentacles me it makes no difference"

Without psychological affects, then tentacles more reliably holds them there.

That's a great point and I think it applies to tackle too. I find that tackle has diminishing returns at higher TV and this is more due to coaches disregarding the skill than playing around it. Prehensile tail and tentacles are pretty good screwballs for this scenario. I'm not sure they'll gift you a turnover, but they are more likely to force a coaching error than tackle.

What are the stats for diving tackle and strength 4 and 5 tentacles?

Carnis wrote:Your numbers don't give me any new info, cheeseman's has the same stats afaik + he has the tentacle results including the dodge (hence more comprehensive).

Oh sorry I can't see cheesmans image so I didn't see any number in the thread.

EDIT: For diving tackle look at AG -2. Str3 Tentacles player against Str 4 needs a 4 or less on 2d6 to hold, so that's 1/6 to hold them, 83% to escape. Holding Str5 is 1/12 that, so 92% to escape.

Numbers aside, if this is for nurgle teams then id run tentacles and develope from that. With players starting with foul appearance, nurgle has a build in way of making a team burn its rerolls. For me that would be the premise of playing that team. Develope it to use up the opponents rerolls and tentacles adds to that. Consider shadowing as a second skill to go with tentacles, adds another dice roll to the situation and when he thinks he got away well maybe he didnt. Would make a nice player to guard sidelines with.