Norse Lineman skill?

[grampyseer]

. Math ruins Blood Bowl!

Agreed. I remember a much more random version of the game, where the special play cards were pretty much guaranteed to stop a TD, and we didn't have the same understanding of stats......sigh

[Carnis]

If the average game goes 4 drives and the average KO goes 2 drives, a KO is half a BH. If an SI is two BHs, a stat loss 3 and a kill 4 (arbitrary, I know), then a casualty is 2x BH. So a Cas is worth 4x a KO. An Injury roll is worth 1/4 KO plus (4x1/6) 2/3 KO = 11/12 KO, plus 7/12 of a stun. By contrast, a quick score is worth 1/2 KO for each KO player, plus 1 TD and 3 SPP. How much does one AV8 guy insulate you from injury rolls? 3%. How much does +1 AV add to your quick score potential?

Where did you get that 3% ? Facing a nonskilled blocker it's 14% (27% vs 41%). Facing a mighty blow blocker it's 17% (41% vs 58%), facing a mighty blow piling on blocker its 17% again for the injury roll and 14% for the KO++ (66% break armor vs 82%). If there's claw then it's negated.

In a 1game comparison, serious injury, bh, kill and miss next game are all equally devastating (except for the first bh, which can be apothd), and certainly not 8 KOs. I'd take 8 KO's over a single kill against any opponent. Imo better comparing numbers are 4 turns for KO, 8 turns for eject/CAS.

The norse team also has a troll and two ulfs with AV8, so it's not like the liner will be your solo player with +AV. The 4 drives while may be average in your league, has not been an average in ours. More likely gameplay is 3 drives (a 1-1 half and a 8 turn 1-0 grind half). Anyway, this varies alot between teams and leagues.

I'm not comfortable with my AV7 zerkers on the line, so I regularily field 3 liners on the line. Additionally, I only field a runner vs high str, using a thrower as a ballcarrier/runner (with leader, sure hands). I'm not all that convinced on kick as a norse team's primary skill, a lot of my liner skillpicks have been tackle, fend, guard & dirty player. This leaves me usually fielding 2 ulfs, 1 thrower, 2 zerks, 1 troll and 5 linemen in defence. 3 of the linemen on the LOS, so there would be plenty of room for +AV there (only rolled it once, and took MA as it was a runner)..

[elhion]

Thank you all for the analysis. Really helpfull and strong arguments from both sides. Eventually I chose +1 AV, for the history allthough I was not 100% convinced I should.

The good news is that 4 of my players leveled up last night so I rolled

6+6 lineman - got Str4!
6+4 lineman - second lineman with +1AV, no I know it was a good desicion for the firtst lineman also, I will use both of them on the LOS!

dodge on runner and leader on thrower!

I guess I am pretty lucky for rolling stats increasements on my linos so far!

[Grogmir]

A +1 ST and now 2 x +1AV is very cool. (When Norse line suffer a little from decent skills picks)

However after reading the thread I have to say the +1MA arguement did sway me.

Still your Norse team is turning into a brute - enjoy the ride!

[voyagers_uk]

or you could have taken the MA+ twice now and be on your way to 4 runners....

[mattgslater]

Where did you get that 3% ?

15 perms to bust AV7, 10 perms to bust AV8 = 1/3 of failed AV7 tests pass at AV8, ÷ 11 players on the field = 3% reduction in chance for a player to get hurt because this player has +AV.

The one-game results are just one game. In a league, you've got to be thinking up to 4-5 games out. That's the basis of the "hedonic calculus" (read: bull**** statistics) that I was pushing for the relative value of an injury. Go ahead and restate it using your own calcs; it's semi-arbitrary. You'll still come to the conclusion that scoring faster slows your rate of bleeding nearly as much as +1 AV on one guy, and does so much more.

@ Elhion: Congrats on the great rolls. Now that you have a +AV guy, you should take another one! Two of them is a very different story, as you can position them effectively. One guy is easy to negate, and a single +AV doesn't do what two does.

[Baduk]

a single +AV doesn't do what two does

orly?


I get what you mean though

[Carnis]

You'll still come to the conclusion that scoring faster slows your rate of bleeding nearly as much as +1 AV on one guy, and does so much more.

Again we disagree. You take 3 LOS hits and a blitz every time you score. Every time you stall, you take 1 blitz hit.. I never really got the whole "forcing them to score by killing their players" argument.

Also, having the +AV always on the LOS means you really should be dividing the significance of the AV increase by 3 or 4 (if you get a blitz too),

[Ullis]

You all should play more Skaven teams. That'd teach you to not care about losing players.

By the way, I love the concept of a team's "half life". Maybe you could express it as a function of AV, skills and the opposing MB's and other skills. This is something someone ought to take a hard think about.

[mattgslater]

Also, having the +AV always on the LOS means you really should be dividing the significance of the AV increase by 3 or 4 (if you get a blitz too),

Good point, that. Funny, me preaching for years that Turn 1 is the most important turn, then forgetting the impact of Turn 1. Rather than reducing your chance of getting hurt by 3% it's more like 8% if you stick him on the line (better than 16% now that he has two because D-ends take the worst beating against most offenses, but that's beside the point), at least in a quick drive. But you're also upping the cost of your line by 15% (now 30%), and whatever you pay on your line is dead weight unless it either saves a guy or gets your guy mobile and off the D-line, which is my primary reason for believing that +AV doesn't really carry its weight (or just exactly carries its weight) on a lino, relative to the skill alternative. I do see how it does so more on a Norse team, with their poor AV and probably the saddest improvement options of any non-Stunty player (G only, best skill already on profile).

Also note that with two of these fellows, you're farther from an all-Fend line than ever before. Worth it anyway (as good as Fend is for hosing teams that anchor their cages off the LOS, it doesn't stop turn-1 chain-blocks, though it may or may not stop chain-pushes for extra blocks or 1TTDs), but still something to note. You may want to throw with/to these guys to get them up quickly, particularly if you get a Guard lino for the nose. Or perhaps put a Blitzer on the nose, once you get one with Guard and SF. I don't like that. 290k on the LOS is almost Orky, and you're just not getting an Orc-quality DL, no matter what you do. Even with a rook Lino it's 210k, which is a better deal than a young elf team (before their superior improvement options close the gap), but comparable to fleshed-out Humans.

[Jural]

The fact that you got a second 6+4 so quickly means you made the right choice! 2X AV 8 is the way to go...

Strange fact- a full line of 6 3 3 8 block players cost norse 30k more than humans to obtain, and is much more difficult to get. Humans finally get a positive comparison!

[GreedySmurf]

I've seen it referenced a couple of times in this thread now - Do other Norse coaches really but a Berserker on the LoS on D? Really?

That's just screaming for him to be hurt surely?

And what's with a guard liney on the nose? Seems a waste of the Guard skill unless you're stacking your liney's in adjacent squares, and if you're playing anything except elves you're still going to get outstrengthed on the line anyway.

For me, the Defensive LoS is three liney's spread as far apart as possible, with hopefully Fend on all three to slow up the opposition.

[Jural]

I've seen it referenced a couple of times in this thread now - Do other Norse coaches really but a Berserker on the LoS on D? Really?

That's just screaming for him to be hurt surely?

And what's with a guard liney on the nose? Seems a waste of the Guard skill unless you're stacking your liney's in adjacent squares, and if you're playing anything except elves you're still going to get outstrengthed on the line anyway.

For me, the Defensive LoS is three liney's spread as far apart as possible, with hopefully Fend on all three to slow up the opposition.

As long as you can avoid getting 3 die blocks on the line, that is a great strategy for norse to employ against rookie teams. The more hits they take without block on your line, the better off you are! Sooner or later a turnover is coming. Against established teams though, I don't feel good spreading out the line.

[Powerhausen]

Personally, I have a rule of thumb I use for pretty much all cases of MA-or-AV-dilemmas.

If it's an early advance, I take +MA. It gives me an immedate advantage I can use, and it gives me good foundation I can work with. Taking MA late in a players career just results in the same player only faster (duh), but take it early and you can really capitalize and hone the potential on any further advances.

As a late advance, I'd usually take +AV, because I'd rather maintain what the player has already accumulated. Also, chances are, the skills I've already have given him are generic skills that don't really capitalize on a MA increase.

So, for example, if I get an early advance on a Human Catcher I'd go +MA, and try to tailor him so I have a really fast player in my arsenal. However, on a "genero-catcher" with Block, Side Step, Nerves of Steel perhaps, making him faster isn't as important in my book as making a good player (developed about to the point where I want him to be) stay in the game a bit longer.

[mattgslater]

I've seen it referenced a couple of times in this thread now - Do other Norse coaches really but a Berserker on the LoS on D? Really?

That's just screaming for him to be hurt surely?

And what's with a guard liney on the nose? Seems a waste of the Guard skill unless you're stacking your liney's in adjacent squares, and if you're playing anything except elves you're still going to get outstrengthed on the line anyway.

For me, the Defensive LoS is three liney's spread as far apart as possible, with hopefully Fend on all three to slow up the opposition.

Now your D-ends are 80k and have to be protected. The thing that makes these guys vulnerable is that anybody can kill them, AV8 or no. A Guard on the nose and AV8 on the ends really diminishes that against ST3 teams. Bash is different, but it's not like you don't want those players against heavy teams... you just want to use them in the backfield.

Nevermind... just re-read what's in this guy's league and on his team. In that case, take these guys off the line and stick them in the backfield, manning two of the four blitz-me spots. Just stick three 0SPP schmoes on the line and let 'em die. Sorry for the confusion. Will pay more attention.