Fanfactor 9 and cooperation

Haar · Post by **Haar** » Sat Dec 06, 2003 5:09 am

I was just doing a little math, and noticed some interesting stuff about starting fanfactor. Just wanted to point it out.

In a normal match, you roll FFd6 for attendance, where FF is the sum of the two competing teams' fanfactor. If you want to really get the money, you are aiming (at TR100, at least) for that 61+ roll. That's +3 to the income roll, +4 for the winner. Big time.

If the two teams have a total FF of 18, the expected value of the roll is 63. So you'll roll a lot more 61+ matches than 60-. Not to say that you won't roll any 50 fan matches, but they'll be in the minority.

If the two teams have a total FF of 17, then the expected value drops to 59.5. So the majority of rolls will be under 61, and you'll be at the top of the +2 income band, a really frustrating place to be.

For starting teams, then, you not only really want a FF9, you want your oppo to get an FF of 9 also. 8 won't cut the mustard. If they're going for 8, you could probably get away with 7. And if they go for 7... At some point, you will fall below the 41 threshold, but that would take a considerable decrease. I think a total FF of 14 (EV 49) would keep you comfortably in the 41-60 band most of the time.

So if you know your oppo is getting FF9, you can get away with FF5. As long as you're the only person in the league doing it, you're fine. You still will suffer on those kickoff events, but if those were that important, you'd see a lot fewer FF1 teams in tournament play.

So there are elements of cooperation and the prisoner's dilemma in selecting your inital FF, if you're playing in a league where advancement and income are important.

Nothing super important, just kind of interesting.

Post by **Old Man Draco** » Sat Dec 06, 2003 9:28 am

And then there was a pitch invasion. FF 5 vs FF 9. Ouch lost three players and one of them is dead!

What I mean to say is that most of those things is also largely about being lucky. The mathematics are in order though!

Kruppe · Post by **Kruppe** » Sat Dec 06, 2003 10:15 am

the price for FF is so low comapred to the benefits, I say for league play ALWAYS get 9!!!!

Odium Khan · Post by **Odium Khan** » Sat Dec 06, 2003 2:25 pm

In my recent double-match semi-final against a dead hard Orc team we managed to roll pitch invasion 5 times on 11 kick-offs... On one instance we had 3 invasions in a row (odds 1:46656) That was quite insane luck for my dark elves, as I had 17 FF and the orcses 8.
The luck evened out in the long run though, or at least that's my side of the story...

Munkey · Post by **Munkey** » Sun Dec 07, 2003 2:03 am

That's an interesting application of game theory.

Practically I think i'd start maybe over 5 to account for any possible losses.

Also, if everyone else is 9 then thats losing me 10k per game in comparison to their other games? Probably this will gain them more than the 40k saved in my initial setup.

Worth thinking about though.

Blammaham · Post by **Blammaham** » Sun Dec 07, 2003 2:25 am

As it stands now I think a 9ff is an absolute must. Considering the math done by Haar, and this is off the top of my head so take it with a grain of salt but maybe this is one of the thing that could be used to slow the development of teams. What if the most ff a rookie team could get was say 3. OK all this being said I don't do math, and based on the numbers haar has put together thid would really slow down some aspects on team development. Just one coaches thoughts.S.

Skummy · Post by **Skummy** » Sun Dec 07, 2003 4:35 am

Here's a well written article on the subject by our old friend Zombie.

http://blood-bowl.net/Tactics/FF9_BB2k1_Zombie.html

BastongeStranglers · Post by **BastongeStranglers** » Sun Dec 07, 2003 5:41 am

When calculating the benefits of a high fan factor, you must also consider the cost.

Fan Factor is a protracted investment.

For instance, if I have a fan factor of 1 then it cost me 10k of my initial 100k starting funds. This means that if I manage to get 10k of extra gain at some point in time then I have paid back my investment and gained a valuable return. If I have a fan factor of 9 then I must earn 90k to get a return on my initial investment and then will start to get value on my return.

Added to that, I have had an extra 80k to put into team development from the start to help me win games that can over time improve my team rating. Zombie's article points out that going over a FF 10 gets increasingly hard and requires a team that consistently scores multiple touchdowns and casualties to overcome the negatives of the -1 per 10 FF rating.

Additionaly, is the consideration of the resources that I have denied to my fellow players by having a lower fan factor.

For example, if I have a FF 1 and play someone with FF 9. Our total is 10 which on average is 3.5x10 = 35,000 Gate which is a +1 modifier. One game played like that pays back the initial investment to the FF 1 player while the FF 9 player made -20k from what he could expect on average playing another FF 9 player. Over a long time of 10 games, the FF 9 player will make back his investment if he plays just FF 1 players but the FF 1 players will over those same 10 games make back their investment and be up an extra 90k of money.

This example is why it is in the interest of coaches in a league to encourage all teams to have high Fan Factors. Each person in the league that they play reduces the amount of money they could earn and increases the over all time needed to pay off their initial investment.

In an ideal world where everyone had high FF of 9 or better than the initial investmet would be paid off in roughly three games and the overall extra money by the end of 10 games would be a bonus 210k ( factoring in the initial investment of 90k )!

If you are only going to have 5 or 6 games and you are uncertain of the opponents fan factors then a lower fan factor is a better investment because you will get your money back and have a stronger initial team.

Skummy · Post by **Skummy** » Sun Dec 07, 2003 5:50 am

Ever hear of something called "The prisoner's dilemma?"

http://serendip.brynmawr.edu/playground/pd.html

BastongeStranglers · Post by **BastongeStranglers** » Tue Dec 09, 2003 12:08 am

Skummy wrote:Ever hear of something called "The prisoner's dilemma?"

http://serendip.brynmawr.edu/playground/pd.html

Yes, it is a basic of good game theory. It was also the focus of the third book in the Blue Adept series by David Eddings ( if I remember correctly, it has been at least 15 yrs since I read it ).

Ah the dilema. A FF 9 hoping that others will do what is best for everyone or a FF 1 hoping the biggest bang for the buck from the start to show everyone how they wasted their money.

Quite a dilema

Munkey · Post by **Munkey** » Tue Dec 09, 2003 8:37 am

Thing is if you go FF 1 and everyone else 9, then you don't 'win' like in prisoners dilemma.

You always get less money, but the rest of the league only gets less money against you.

Scrappy Kid · Post by **Scrappy Kid** » Tue Dec 09, 2003 12:55 pm

Munkey wrote:Thing is if you go FF 1 and everyone else 9, then you don't 'win' like in prisoners dilemma.

You always get less money, but the rest of the league only gets less money against you.

You've forgotten the 80k saved in not buying FF (obviously the poor modifiers on the kickoff table is also a factor, but it's not so easy to put a price on this.)

It's doesn't really work as a prisoners dilemma because buying FF is an investment, not a cost, and the numbers (and the practical experience of everyone suggesting FF9) show it to be an investment worth making.

swilhelm73 · Post by **swilhelm73** » Tue Dec 09, 2003 10:32 pm

Another tack on this too is the format of your league.

In an open format like FUMBBL people are far less likely to play another starting team with a low FF - so if you go the FF1 route, you are likely to only find other FF1 players for your first few games.

Those FF9 teams playing other FF9 teams are far more likely to survive whatever initial losses they take. The low FF team really has to minimize injuries to survive.

So, in short, in an open format there is NO question FF9 is better.

In a tourny or scheduled match league, there is more room for debate...

Orin · Post by **Orin** » Thu Dec 25, 2003 10:38 am

Most people in my league start off with FF around 5, hoping to leech off more winnigs by playing people who start out with FF9. there are 2 flaws in this plan... MOST people in my league start off with FF around 5, so there's not much extra cash to be gained there, and I end up rolling a gate of less than 20 even though I do have FF 9.

Dark Lord (retired) · Post by **Dark Lord (retired)** » Thu Dec 25, 2003 4:16 pm

IU always thought 9 was a no-brainer too until my brother-in-law started a dwarf team with a FF of 2.

His played for the casualties for the first round. By the second round the other teams in the league were all missing players and short on funds. So he had an easy time of winning the games. Of course he didn't have much money either but he started out with a lot of AV 9...more than normal so he didn't need it. He won the cup that year.
Brilliant strategy IMO but I feel like I should inform you that the rest of the league was somthing like Skaven, 2X Human, Undead, High Elf, Wood Elf, and Dark Elf.

Not sure he would have gotten away with it in a season that had more bashy teams.

Talk Fantasy Football

Fanfactor 9 and cooperation

Fanfactor 9 and cooperation

Return on Investment