Probability Table

matkov · Post by **matkov** » Tue Jul 12, 2005 9:36 am

Hi all, I worked on excel sheet counting some probabilities. Maybe there are many of more confortable caltulators, but I didn't find any so far. There are not all options included so far. I will improve it when I will have enough free time. Feel free to comment and use.

Enjoy.

http://resize.like.cz/images/1121161005 ... _table.xls

Ravage · Post by **Ravage** » Tue Jul 12, 2005 12:58 pm

very nice! I havent confirmed the math but the basic stuff looks to be right....

my only comment would be that it would be nice to have everything done out in seperate tables for printing reference. I know a few stat-lovers who wouldnt mind tucking a percentage reference sheet next to them when playing

The way you have it set up now is great for when you're actually in front of the computer and can adjust the values, but it doesnt help much for being at the table playing. Altho then again, I suppose anyone who wanted could just plug in values, print, plug in different values, print.... but I'm lazy

prisma · Post by **prisma** » Sun Jul 24, 2005 8:28 pm

Very nice, indeed !

The 'piling-on'-macro does not seem to work (at least mine didn't), all others did.
Could you also include 'stunty' (+1 on inj) in the inj-probabilities ?

matkov · Post by **matkov** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 7:12 am

Formulas are too complicated in excell when I don't use macros. So I decided to make C++ application.

You can see preview at: http://www.bloodbowlke.szm.sk/bb_calculator.jpg.

Enjoy.

Post by **DoubleSkulls** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 10:30 pm

I did some a while ago

Blocking
Injuries
Going for it

For all the PBBL stuff I've been generating the numbers using a Java program - because after a while it gets much easier just to do 500,000 attempts and count the results than actually work out the probabilities.

matkov · Post by **matkov** » Tue Jul 26, 2005 7:33 am

ianwilliams wrote:I did some a while ago

Blocking
Injuries
Going for it

For all the PBBL stuff I've been generating the numbers using a Java program - because after a while it gets much easier just to do 500,000 attempts and count the results than actually work out the probabilities.

Good work. Formula have exponencial complexity if you try to implement all possibilities (skills) into it.

orgak · Post by **orgak** » Fri Aug 19, 2005 1:57 pm

Matkov,

Kudos for the effort on the sheet. It appears that your defender down results on two dice aren't quite correct.. With two dice you show the chance of defender down to be 75%. The reason it seems is that you apply base line logic to a Both Down result and asume that the attacker will take it even without block. In most BB situations, it seems a rare case when an attacking player will actually take a Both Down result (with the resulting turn over) instead of a Push Back.

When you take that into consideration, that means the defender goes down 23/36 of the time (20 defender downs and 3 both downs).

Your 11.11% for attacker down appears to take into account the 1/36 chance of attacker down and 3/36 of him taking both down.

Ian's site also does not appear to take the Both Down result into account for the chances of knocking an opponent down with two dice. His % is 55.6% which is the 20/36 amount for a pure Defender Down but ignores the 3/36 chance of a both down. The Both Down result does factor into Ian's 11.1% chance of the attacker going down, however.

matkov · Post by **matkov** » Fri Aug 19, 2005 2:00 pm

orgak wrote:Matkov,

Kudos for the effort on the sheet. It appears that your defender down results on two dice aren't quite correct.. With two dice you show the chance of defender down to be 75%. The reason it seems is that you apply base line logic to a Both Down result and asume that the attacker will take it even without block. In most BB situations, it seems a rare case when an attacking player will actually take a Both Down result (with the resulting turn over) instead of a Push Back.

When you take that into consideration, that means the defender goes down 23/36 of the time (20 defender downs and 3 both downs).

Your 11.11% for attacker down appears to take into account the 1/36 chance of attacker down and 3/36 of him taking both down.

It is done so because opponent can choose to take this result, if you think he will not, give you (defender) block skill

.

orgak · Post by **orgak** » Fri Aug 19, 2005 2:17 pm

matkov wrote:
It is done so because opponent can choose to take this result, if you think he will not, give you (defender) block skill .

That is not quite right. If you chart out the possible outcomes, you have 20 Def Down (dd) results, 12 Push Back (pb) results, 3 Both Down (bd) and 1 Att Down (ad). It has nothing to do with the block skill on the defender. It has to do with the choice of bringing both players down or pushing back when the dice come up BD/PB. Adding block to the defender won't accurately measure this because it brings the odds down to 55.5% when they are actually 63%

The only time your situation will come up is when you are making the one block to knock the ball out. At that point 75% is accurate. Problem is most of the time, we're not looking at that situation.

matkov · Post by **matkov** » Fri Aug 19, 2005 2:43 pm

OK, I'm now working on BB calculator (C++ program), what rules do you suggest as default ?

So far I have designed aplication window. You can have look at http://www.bloodbowlke.szm.sk/OBR/bb_calculator.jpg

orgak · Post by **orgak** » Fri Aug 19, 2005 2:55 pm

matkov wrote:OK, I'm now working on BB calculator (C++ program), what rules do you suggest as default ?

So far I have designed aplication window. You can have look at http://www.bloodbowlke.szm.sk/OBR/bb_calculator.jpg

Very cool. I guess I would suggest adding a switch to indicate if the block is against a ball carrier (do or die play) that will take into account the differences I referenced earlier.

matkov · Post by **matkov** » Fri Aug 19, 2005 3:03 pm

It's no problem to add such button (both down prefered). But question is about main rules.

There are some question to solve which would be default:

1) both down vs push back
2) frenzy and secondary block
3) MB vs piling on
...

That's what I'm asking about.

Post by **DoubleSkulls** » Sat Aug 20, 2005 7:47 am

Yep, I don't include the 1/12 chance of only get both downs and adding that into the chance of defender down.

Assuming no block for the attacker, the real problem is that its a turnover - meaning you never accept it normally so its generally considered a "failure" result. So including it in the defender down stats, although "correct" actually makes the numbers look a little better than they are in practice.

Post by **DoubleSkulls** » Sat Aug 20, 2005 7:49 am

1) Always push. Both down is a turnover so you'll rarely ever choose it.

2) What's the problem? Frenzy, on a push, just assume a 2nd block at the same dice which is easier than trying to do anything else.

3) Always use MB on the armour in preference to the PO chance. The penalty of PO is too high for general usage if you are through anyway (at least that's the way I've always modelled it and would always play it).

kadu-c · Post by **kadu-c** » Sat Aug 20, 2005 11:43 am

There has been a calculator on FBB for ages

http://www.francebloodbowl.com/proba.php

Although it's in French and online...

But your idea to set the position of the players is really a good idea.