Percentage of success in fouling?

Falkom · Post by **Falkom** » Thu Oct 25, 2007 7:03 am

I was wondering did someone calculate a % of successfull fouls and % of chance to be sent off in regard to number of assist (or AV value) and Sneaky git player.

For example if you make a foul with Sneaky git player what is:

% of breaking AV9,AV8,AV7 armour
% of being sent of (chance of geting double while breaking AV9,AV8,AV7)

maybe some advanced calculation which include DP modiifers also

Jural · Post by **Jural** » Thu Oct 25, 2007 7:44 am

With no assists, your odds of breaking armor on any foul are:

AV 6- 21/36
AV 7- 15/36
AV 8- 10/36
AV 9- 6/36
AV 10- 3/36

The odds of being sent off are:

AV 6- 1/6 + (18/36*1/6) = 9/36 = 25.0%
AV 7- 1/6 + (12/36*1/6) = 8/36 = 22.2%
AV 8- 1/6 + (8/36*1/6)= 7.3/36 = 20.8%
AV 9- 1/6 + (4/36*1/6)= 6.7/36 = 18.5%
AV 10- 1/6 + (2/36*1/6)= 6.3/36 = 17.6%

With sneaky git, the odds of breaking armor are the same, but you are sent off less often, as follows:

AV 6- 3/36 + (18/36*1/6) = 6/36 = 16.7%
AV 7- 3/36 + (12/36*1/6) = 5/36 = 13.9%
AV 8- 2/36 + (8/36*1/6)= 3.3/36 = 9.2%
AV 9- 2/36 + (4/36*1/6)= 2.7/36 = 7.5%
AV 10- 1/36 + (2/36*1/6)= 1.3/36 = 3.6%

Of course for assists, just adjust the target AV by 1 to a more favorable AV (so fouling AV 10 with 3 assists, look at the plain results for AV7.)

plasmoid · Post by **plasmoid** » Thu Oct 25, 2007 9:51 am

Hi Falkom,
not exactly what you asked for, but try this:
viewtopic.php?t=22760

Falkom · Post by **Falkom** » Thu Oct 25, 2007 3:33 pm

Thanks for math Jural. I supose that if my player also have a DP skill and, for example, try to foul AV9 player then I should look to AV8 percentage for break armour success and AV9 SG percentage for sent off (as I can choose to use DP or not after roll)?

Hi, plasmoid, I have already considered code

So, in other words, this table shows what AV you need to reduce your opponent to, in order to have a greater chance of removing him from the pitch than the risk of getting sent off.

Code:
---------------stunty normal thickskull
No skills AV7 AV5 never!
Dirty Player AV8 [6] AV8 AV6
Sneaky Git AV10 AV8 never!
DP + SG AV11 [10] AV11 AV10

but I must admit that I did not understand it esspecialy part "this table shows what AV you need to reduce your opponent to". As I read it (and I probaly read it completle wrong) with DP + SG I need to "reduce" my opponent AV to 11? in order to have better chances of remove vs be removed which is worst then if I make a foul with "rookie" player... could you explain it little bit more...

EDIT: I read you post again and manage to get a grasp, thanks

Jural · Post by **Jural** » Thu Oct 25, 2007 6:18 pm

Falkom wrote:... if my player also have a DP skill and, for example, try to foul AV9 player then I should look to AV8 percentage for break armour success and AV9 SG percentage for sent off (as I can choose to use DP or not after roll)?

That's exactly right. So having two assists and being a DP fouling an AV 9 player means the odds of breaking armor (and being sent off) are the same as if you were just alone fouling a halfling!

Joemanji · Post by **Joemanji** » Thu Oct 25, 2007 7:07 pm

Ian Williams (doubleskulls) did all the math on the NAF forum somewhere.

DamianTheLost · Post by **DamianTheLost** » Tue Dec 11, 2007 10:14 pm

How is it that the odds for being send off changes depending on AV? The odds for being sent off are still 1/6 no matter the AV unless you have Sneaky Git i suppose. Sorry just don't get it...

tenwit · Post by **tenwit** » Tue Dec 11, 2007 10:35 pm

There's a 1/6 chance of being sent off based on the armour roll. If that succeeds, there's a further 1/6 chance of being sent off based on the injury roll. The chances of actually making that injury roll depend on the AV of the victim.

Post by **DoubleSkulls** » Wed Dec 12, 2007 8:34 am

Joemanji wrote:Ian Williams (doubleskulls) did all the math on the NAF forum somewhere.

There ought to be another article coming out some time when the NAF library gets going too. Its got all the stats for all the skill combos (including Thick Skull & Stunty)

Falkom · Post by **Falkom** » Sat Jan 05, 2008 4:06 pm

DamianTheLost wrote:How is it that the odds for being send off changes depending on AV? The odds for being sent off are still 1/6 no matter the AV unless you have Sneaky Git i suppose. Sorry just don't get it...

Odds to be sent off are different depending on AV only if you have Sneaky Git (u are send off only if you get doubles and you brake armour) and even more if you have both SG and dirty player (which you can use or not)

Post by **DoubleSkulls** » Mon Jan 07, 2008 10:46 am

DamianTheLost wrote:How is it that the odds for being send off changes depending on AV? The odds for being sent off are still 1/6 no matter the AV unless you have Sneaky Git i suppose. Sorry just don't get it...

It doesn't affect the chance of getting sent off at all - but it does affect the chance of removing your opponent from the pitch - the odds of getting a KO or Cas are worse if your opponent has thick skull - so the risk/reward ratio is worse.

necromancer · Post by **necromancer** » Mon Apr 21, 2008 1:03 pm

What about players with niggling injury?

I got a CD with niggling and thick skull

PubBowler · Post by **PubBowler** » Mon Apr 21, 2008 1:51 pm

Hangus just sent me here:

http://www.thenaf.net/index.php?name=Se ... =28&page=1

So a niggle would be the same as having stunty.

necromancer · Post by **necromancer** » Mon Apr 21, 2008 7:28 pm

Thanks.
I have seen it.
But what if you have both thick skull and niggling (stunty)?

Jural · Post by **Jural** » Mon Apr 21, 2008 11:26 pm

ianwilliams wrote:
DamianTheLost wrote:How is it that the odds for being send off changes depending on AV?
It doesn't affect the chance of getting sent off at all - but it does affect the chance of removing your opponent from the pitch - the odds of getting a KO or Cas are worse if your opponent has thick skull - so the risk/reward ratio is worse.

I just noticed this... and it's not true. Even without sneaky git (as a matter of fact, it would make sneaky git useless if it was true

).

Basically, if you don't break armor, you only have a 1/6 chance of getting sent off. But if you do break armor, you expose yourself to a further 1/6 chance (a total risk of 11/36 if you break armor, 1/6 if you don't.)

The AV is important because there are more cases where you take the 11/36 rate instead of just the 1/6.