Bashing Elf

[spubbbba]

Well that's the whole point.

The strongest Dark Elf team has 4 Blitzers and the rest linemen, then adds a witch elf or 2 and maybe a runner and/or assassin later on. Even back in LRB4 the optimum teamwould be 1 or 2 blitzers and the rest linos, then adding blitzers and re-rolls and after that getting some witches and maybe a thrower.

The MA7 of runners is quite nice, but dump off is really not a skill you want to rely on as it means your AV7 ball carrier has to get hit to use it.

The basic lineman is expensive, but very good, AG4 and A access is well worth the extra 20K over a human lineman.

I don't see how they could have such a low win rate unless people wanted to start with the new positionals (both of who are expensive and not very good). Of course it could be that some poor coaches used them and brought the rate down.

[Jural]

I don't see how they could have such a low win rate unless people wanted to start with the new positionals (both of who are expensive and not very good). Of course it could be that some poor coaches used them and brought the rate down.

Expensive positionals and linemen, no +STR, relatively slow. relatively lightly armored.

Blood Bowl is usually not won by the team with the best 11 all around players, but rather the team with the best 6 players and the cheap fodder backing them up.

[DoubleSkulls]

I believe Dark Elves are on the advanced list for the number of rostered specialized skills (stab, shadowing)

This is correct. Dark Elves are a tier 1 team so are meant to have roughly a .500 record.

[SillySod]

As an advanced tier 1 team I think that they should get approximately a 50% win record (if not a little better) provided they are only used by coaches who are well versed in their use. Less experienced coaches or coaches unsuited to the playstyle are likely to bring the average down a bit.

[plasmoid]

Hi all,

Ian said:

Dark Elves are a tier 1 team so are meant to have roughly a .500 record.

Well, since LRB5 they're having a hard time with that.

SillySod said:

As an advanced tier 1 team I think that they should get approximately a 50% win record (if not a little better) provided they are only used by coaches who are well versed in their use.

So you shouldn't just be a good coach, but a good coach who has tried to play them before and learned from his mistakes?
Harsh. I think no other team is judged like that.

The MBBL, being play by email, really has no newbie coaches. Bad coaches? Maybe. But no newbie coaches. It's kind of depressing to see a tier 1 team doing that badly in a league full of experienced coaches.

Mind you - if I could fix one BB team, this wouldn't be it.

Cheers
Martin

[whitetiger]

I believe Dark Elves are on the advanced list for the number of rostered specialized skills (stab, shadowing)

This is correct. Dark Elves are a tier 1 team so are meant to have roughly a .500 record.

Ian, all the stats I can find suggest that Dark Elves are not at .500, they are nearer .400. Would that not suggest for the sake of balance, that DE could use a small boost? I don't believe they need an overhaul, just a tweak. And while I would love to get that Executioner we were talking about, I know that is about as likely to happen as DE also getting a Minotaur. But, couldn't the runner be morphed back into a passer, or the witches given strength access or some such?

I'm really tired of getting my can kicked by new or poor coaches just because they have 4 to 6 strength 4 players on the field and then my team not being able to develope in a league.

[PubBowler]

Mind you - if I could fix one BB team, this wouldn't be it.

I hear yer: flings before elves

[SillySod]

So you shouldn't just be a good coach, but a good coach who has tried to play them before and learned from his mistakes?
Harsh. I think no other team is judged like that.

Hmmm, I think I meant that you should be a pretty good coach or a reasonable one that has learnt from their mistakes. Even then a good coach with one race might be less good with other races or simply less practiced with them... I know that I'm decent with vampires, darkies, and norse but I'd be downright uncomfortable with orcs or dwarfs and probably lose.

However dark elves, unlike with orcs and dwarfs I think far fewer people catch on to the "correct" strategy... theres just lots more flexibility inherrant with the stat profile and to win they need to utilise less "obvious" or easily learnable tactics. Breaking a cage is harder to learn than forming one but once you know both balance is restored.... I think that the weaker 40% comes from that inherrent gap, I dont think its cage breaking especially but just their optimal tactics in general which take longer to learn.

[spubbbba]

I don't see how they could have such a low win rate unless people wanted to start with the new positionals (both of who are expensive and not very good). Of course it could be that some poor coaches used them and brought the rate down.

Expensive positionals and linemen, no +STR, relatively slow. relatively lightly armored.

Blood Bowl is usually not won by the team with the best 11 all around players, but rather the team with the best 6 players and the cheap fodder backing them up.

So 4 blitzers and 2 witches then?

In any case teams need to spread their SPP's to be competitive. It's a common mistake once you get above TV150 to rely on a few stars to win the game. If they get taken out then the teams struggles and the other players on the team need skills or they end up getting injured or causing turnovers.

Elves great strength is that any of them can dodge, pass, catch and pick up the ball almost as well as many teams specialists. They can easily skill up any player and with plenty of blodge and a smattering of other skills they are heard to beat.

That's why Dark Elves should focus on the AV8 players and use the running game, whilst retaining the option of the passing game. Once the novelty of the Runners and Assassins has worn off then hopefully people should go back to concentrating on Blitzers and linemen with some support at higher TV from the specialists.

I really can't explain the poor win rate from MBBL, maybe the sample size is too small or some terrible coaches are using them a lot. But the 4 elven teams are not that different. Wood Elves are the strongest but I'd say Dark Elves were easily equal to High Elves and better than Pro Elves. However they probably come into ttheir own more at the higher end of the TV rating, their AV8 and blodge helps keep them alive better than the AV7 wood and pro elf teams.

[whitetiger]

I looked up the stats on MBBL last week and posted them. Dark Elves had one of the highest Times Played (several hundred, if I remember correctly) and Teams Being Used (4th or 5th from the top). The stats had plenty enough of a sampling to be useful. And they were in the low 40%s.

[plasmoid]

Yup.
340 games with dark elfs. 43% wins (including half a win for a draw).

I did some excruciating math, counting each dark elf coach's average win percentage and multiplying them by their number of games playing dark elfs (divided by total number of games played).

This is by no means a perfect method, but it takes coaching skill into account, and with that, the dark elfs were still underperforming - though not by much.

Has to be said that since a coach dark elf losses also counts into his average, a weak species will drag down his numbers, making the species numbers look less bad. So it's probably a bit more significant than it looks.

I'd like to do this for all teams, but it'll take way too long.
I need someone to do a little bit of programming for me.
I'll try my luck in the general section.

Cheers
Martin

[whitetiger]

Thank you, Plasmoid. Glad to see someone else looking into the numbers.

[PubBowler]

Glad to see someone else looking into the numbers.

I'd be surprised if the majority of people aren't aware of the MBBL stats.
I know I am.

But what Plasmoid is trying to do next is interesting.
And worth doing.

Although:

This is by no means a perfect method, but it takes coaching skill into account, and with that, the dark elfs were still underperforming - though not by much.

his numbers might not go where you want them to...

[whitetiger]

I haven't crunched the numbers, but I'll bet they will. I've been playing DE a long time, and they are definately sinking.

[Jural]

To be fair, I'm still competitive with them, but the following changes from LRB 4 to 5 seem to have a bigger effect than I expected. By the way, I don't use assassins.

1) Thrower AV going from 8-->7, Pass gone.

2) High cost positionals mean TV is high, high cost linemen mean TV is high. "Lack of Superstar" means it's difficult to make an efficient TV team.

3) Other team inducement options have negative effects on Dark Elves. Chainsaws ignore Blodge, wizards can stop a scoring drive. And unlike other elves and Skaven, the Dark Elves often don't get enough separation to ensure a TD even if lightning bolted.

4) Doubles skills and Attribute increases properly costed

It doesn't make them unplayable. BUT, it does make the team worse in this edition. I'd say the runner is the single biggest problem, actually. It's a fun positional, but it surely is a weak point for the team.

I wonder if the best change may be the simplest one?

Runner--> Thrower 6 3 4 8 Pass 80 or 90k? or 6 3 4 8 Pass, Dump-Off 90k? or 6 3 4 8 Dump-Off 80k?

Oh, and Assasin should be changed from:

0-2 6 3 4 7 Shadowing, Stab

0-0 7 4 4 8 Shadowing, Stab, Multiple Block, Side Step 120k