Discuss Fantasy football-style board games - GW's Blood Bowl, Impact!'s Elfball, Privateer Press' Grind, Heresy's Deathball, etc. THIS IS NOT AN NFL FANTASY FOOTBALL SITE!
My Wood Elves don't get as much mileage out of Strip Ball as my other teams. I am generally in the backfield targetting the guy who fielded the ball, who is more likely to have Sure Hands (especially when playing against me!)
It's good to have on the team, but I would still go Diving tackle. Shadowing is annoying, but it's easier to get away from, especially when the player in question has tackle.
With Ag 4 and MA 7, a player gets away from a Diving Tackler 50% of the time, 75% with a re-roll.
That same player gets away from an MA 9 Shadower 58% of the time, but if he uses a team re-roll on his first failure, he gets away more than
89% of the time!
Jural wrote:
With Ag 4 and MA 7, a player gets away from a Diving Tackler 50% of the time, 75% with a re-roll.
That same player gets away from an MA 9 Shadower 58% of the time, but if he uses a team re-roll on his first failure, he gets away more than
89% of the time!
First of all. AG 4 and MA 7 is not an average bloodbowl player. Second, are you not forgetting that a shadowplayer can follow you every stepp. 89% when the shadowing fails maybe, but the shadowing player often follows the dodging player.
Jural wrote:
With Ag 4 and MA 7, a player gets away from a Diving Tackler 50% of the time, 75% with a re-roll.
That same player gets away from an MA 9 Shadower 58% of the time, but if he uses a team re-roll on his first failure, he gets away more than
89% of the time!
First of all. AG 4 and MA 7 is not an average bloodbowl player. Second, are you not forgetting that a shadowplayer can follow you every stepp. 89% when the shadowing fails maybe, but the shadowing player often follows the dodging player.
Not true. The odds given are the odds of not having a turnover in your turn if you try to move your complete movement. 75% for diving tackle+tackle with a re-roll backer, >89% for shadowing+tackle with a re-roll backer.
I do think AG 4 and MA 7 is the average player that a Wood Elf catcher will mark, but just for fun let's say AG 3 and MA 6.
In that case Diving Tackle works 67% of the time if the opponent doesn't have a re-roll backer, and 55% if the opponent does.
Shadowing will work (cause a turnover) 81.2% if the opponent doesn't have re-roll, but it will only work 41% of the time if the opponent has a re-roll backer. And that's assuming the player tries to move 6 squares, not just 2 or 3.
So I'm sorry, but Diving Tackle+ Tackle is almost always better than Shadowing+Tackle with respect to causing turnovers if the opponent has a re-roll.
Now if the opponent has Ag 4 and Dodge and you don't have tackle, Shadowing may be better, but this player in question has tackle, so the point is moot.
Jural - I don't see how your maths works out are you able to elaborate?
I think that against MA7 the shadow has a 5/6 chance of working. So for each dodge there is an additional 5/6 chance of forcing a 1/6 turnover.
So assuming the 1st dodge succeeds, then shadowing has a 5/36 chance of causing a turnover on the 2nd dodge.
Shadowing is a really complicated skill to model - especially compared to diving tackle because so much is tied into the relative abilities of the two players.
One of the big issues is that if you are AG2 or less you are very unlikely to try and dodge at all against either.
AG3 would need to be desperate to dodge against DT, and have a TRR. However this sort of means shadowing is more likely to cause a turnover since DT's are probably going to have to be blitzed off, while they might take the risk against shadowing.
AG4 it becomes much more even. DT is now 50/50, shadowing would need for force 3~4 extra dodges to be as good. However the AG4 player is more likely to try and run away!
I'd probably say that against many coaches the affect ends up being the same - if they want to get away they'll try and blitz. I'd probably go for DT first because this player is very good at getting next to ball carriers, and with SS, forcing the blitz on him is a great way of seizing the initiative.
Shadowing...
vs. MA4: automatic
vs. MA5: 35/36
vs. MA6: 11/12
vs. MA7: 5/6
vs. MA8: EDIT:13/18
vs. MA9: 7/12
vs. MA10: 5/12
So a Ghoul (or Human Blitzer) has a (2/3 x 1/6) 1/9 shot to dodge away, a 3/9 shot to fall, and a 5/9 shot to move a square and try again. With TRR, it's 1/9 to fall, 4/27 to dodge away and 20/27 (~70%) to repeat the process. EDIT:A Wardancer fares better, with a 25/108 shot to get away, 1/6 (18/108) to fall and the remaining 65/108 (about 60%) to repeat. A TRR will really reduce the chances of falling, but most of the reduction will be applied to the permutations for Shadowing success.
Diving Tackle, by contrast, turns 1/3 of total dodge results from success or failure. So the Ghoul has a 1/3 shot (5/9 with TRR) and the WD has a 1/2 chance (3/4 with TRR). And if DT works, it pushes up the priority of the guy's action and costs 3 sq. movement.
Shadowing, baby. Unless you face primarily High/Pro/Wood Elves, or Skaven. AG4+MA8 changes the equation. But Dark Elves, Humans, Lizards, Undead, 'Zons? Shadowing will rock their worlds.
Reason:''
What is Nuffle's view? Through a window, two-by-three. He peers through snake eyes.
What is Nuffle's lawn? Inches, squares, and tackle zones: Reddened blades of grass.
What is Nuffle's tree? Risk its trunk, space the branches. Touchdowns are its fruit.
ianwilliams wrote:Jural - I don't see how your maths works out are you able to elaborate?
Not really! I had the rules for shadowing wrong, I was using the odds of a tie meaning you can't shadow.
With the tie meaning you can shadow, It doesn't make any sense to re-roll the shadowing results, so the easy way I had to do the math before (just re-roll the first failed Dodge OR Shadowing result) is nonsensical, you'd have to save your re-rolls for the Dodges and not worry about the shadowing.
EDIT: If you only re-roll dodges, Diving Tackle and Shadowing are almost equal, Diving Tackle being a 25% turnover rate, Shadowing a 23%. Interestingly enough, if the player moves 7 squares, there is a 14% chance that the shadower is still with him afterwards, and both are still standing.
I have to say I'm wrong, Diving Tackle and Shadowing are about equal for this player.
I usually prefer DT over shadowing since on defence you're most likely trying to pin their most potential scorers which usually have high MA. Lots of teams start with MA 8 players: Lizards, Skaven, High Elves, Wood Elves, Necromantic, Humans and Pro Elves which would make shadowing less usefull then DT.
DT is weak vs high AG, especially starting at 5. In my experience many AG 4 players will think twice about dodging away from a Tackle/DT player (and then will usually not do it untill very late in their turn or when they're desperate). At AG 5 they'll usually risk it. No team starts with a basic stat line of AG 5.
Add to that that +MA is a lot easier to gain then +AG and that high starting MA is a lot more common then high starting AG makes DT a bit better then shadowing.
Both are fine choices though so I guess it depends on your league composition...
If you're up against MA8/AG3, Shadowing is the same as DT in practice: it stops people from trying. But if they do try and fail, it's much better, as you're not on your butt.
As a skill overall, yeah, DT is better than Shadowing. But on MA9? I don't even think it's all that close.
Reason:''
What is Nuffle's view? Through a window, two-by-three. He peers through snake eyes.
What is Nuffle's lawn? Inches, squares, and tackle zones: Reddened blades of grass.
What is Nuffle's tree? Risk its trunk, space the branches. Touchdowns are its fruit.
mattgslater wrote:If you're up against MA8/AG3, Shadowing is the same as DT in practice: it stops people from trying. But if they do try and fail, it's much better, as you're not on your butt.
As a skill overall, yeah, DT is better than Shadowing. But on MA9? I don't even think it's all that close.
I disagree.
Fact remains with shadowing it's just a single 3+ dodge to move 1 square. For DT it's a 5+ dodge. Sometimes 1 square is all you need to hand off/assist/blitz/whatever. DT is a lot better at pinning the player in the square he is.
With MA 8 AG 3 vs MA 9 shadowing I'd probably risk making that dodge to get better positioning as long as I have a reroll. Once I burn that I'd stay put and not risk the turnover. Same situation vs diving tackle I wouldn't risk it unless I was desperate.
I still think both skills would be great, but the way I play DT will always have an edge.
edit: the going prone part is a small price to pay for a turnover IMO, and only a marginal factor as you rarely actually use the skill (since most people won't risk the dodge).
TuernRedvenom wrote:
edit: the going prone part is a small price to pay for a turnover IMO, and only a marginal factor as you rarely actually use the skill (since most people won't risk the dodge).
Diving Tackle for sure, then he can mark all kinds of players succesfully, apart from the ag 4 or 5 leap ones Shadowing I dont find as succesfull in holding back all kinds of players from dodging.
