TTM to break a cage

[Carloz]

Here's a question for statistic lovers.
If I want to throw a team mate on the opponent's ball carrier.
Where do I have to aim on? On the square of the ball carrier or on a square adjacent the square of the ball carrier.
What gives me the most change of hitting him after the three-squares scatter?
Thx

[DoubleSkulls]

The highest chance is the centre square.

[mepmuff]

The highest chance is the centre square.

No, it's not. It's one of the squares adjacent.

After one scatter:

Code: Select all

1 1 1
1 0 1
1 1 1

After two scatters:

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1 2 3 2 1
2 2 4 2 2
3 4 8 4 3
2 2 4 2 2
1 2 3 2 1

After three scatters:

Code: Select all

1  3  6  7  6  3 1
3  6 12 12 12  6 3
6 12 27 27 27 12 6
7 12 27 24 27 12 7
6 12 27 27 27 12 6
3  6 12 12 12  6 3
1  3  6  7  6  3 1

[Angeblich]

cool. never thought of this...

so aiming to the side has a slightly higher chance of hitting the carrier. but with the center-aim you have a greater possibility of hitting at least the cage-corners, whereas the side-aim gives you a greater possibility to land safely if you don't hit the carrier or 1 of the two cage-corners and could be able to make a lucky 2- or 3-dice-against-you-block.

so i am torn as to how i should handle arising occasions with my flings. how to the pros handle it? or don't you kamikaze-ttm at all?

[Ullis]

I'm no pro as I've never tried a TTM myself, but I recently started an Underworld team on MBBL, so this information will come in handy. The chances of hitting one exact square is just 5 % (by aiming to the side), but the chances of hitting something in a classic X cage is 26%, which is not great, but not entirely bad either.

[Pug]

I am interested in the responces here, because i im just finishing off my custom ogre team and was basically going to use the snots as bullets!!

[landrover]

I always believed that you couldn't aim a stunty at an opposing player. Or was that in an earlier version of the rules?

[Darkson]

Earlier version.

[DoubleSkulls]

I stand corrected.

[Smeborg]

I'm not a mathemetician, but doesn't random walk theory or something like that say that the ball (or thrown player) will scatter on average by the square root of 3 squares?

This is worth knowing when constructing a cage to receive any pass that is likely to scatter.

And to return to the subject of the thread, I suggest that the centre square is still the best bet in practice, because if you take out one of the corners, you improve your chances of blizing the ball carrier.

Hope this helps.

Smeborg

[Glowworm]

The highest chance is the centre square.

Actually I have found the "highest chance" is wherever your own player is in relation to the the flying 'Fling!! As the only thing I have ever hit is my own player who was lurking for the Blitz move

[DoubleSkulls]

Aiming at the ball carrier in a "classic" diamond cage gives about a 25% chance of hitting the ball carrier or one of the corners. Aiming one square off either vertically or horiztonally, although having a better chance of hitting the ball carrier, only has a 20% chance of hitting the ball carrier OR one of the corners.

In both cases there is about 50% chance of hitting one of your own players

[Smeborg]

If only Blaise Pascal had been a Blood Bowl coach, all of probability theory would have been different.

Smeborg

[Khambian]

Now I'm picturing a Snot star player with an increased chance of knockdown and/or injury (wearing an extra spiky helmet or something).