Humans - Theoretical LRB7 Discussion

mattgslater · Post by **mattgslater** » Thu Mar 12, 2009 9:15 pm

Orcs are overpowered. So are Wood Elves.

Post by **DoubleSkulls** » Fri Mar 13, 2009 9:26 am

mattgslater wrote:Orcs are overpowered.

But the stats don't support that Orcs are overpowered. Pretty much every quantative analysis of relative team performance has orcs around mid table. Even FUMBBL's stats (e.g. http://fumbbl.com/FUMBBL.php?page=stats ... &bracket=4) seem to support this and I don't think there is much in LRB5 to give Orcs much of a relative boost.

Meanwhile the stats do seem to show that humans are performing at the bottom end of tier 1 (someone has to be...) so probably would benefit from a small boost.

I actually think I might go as far as to say Av8 on the catchers, without a price hike, would be worth trying - however at present I'm more interested in a larger reworking of humans.

Al the Trowel · Post by **Al the Trowel** » Fri Mar 13, 2009 10:07 am

ianwilliams wrote: I actually think I might go as far as to say Av8 on the catchers, without a price hike, would be worth trying - however at present I'm more interested in a larger reworking of humans.

How much of a larger reworking for Humans did you have in mind? I don't think there is the appetite for a radically changed roster with new positions.

Joemanji · Post by **Joemanji** » Fri Mar 13, 2009 10:08 am

ianwilliams wrote:I actually think I might go as far as to say Av8 on the catchers, without a price hike, would be worth trying - however at present I'm more interested in a larger reworking of humans.

Shame. For me 80K blitzers is a no brainer, and AV8 catchers might be okay, though it seems counter intuitive at first. But there is nothing fundamentally wrong with the team or their style. They just suffer in comparison.

Post by **DoubleSkulls** » Fri Mar 13, 2009 10:17 am

Al the Trowel wrote:How much of a larger reworking for Humans did you have in mind? I don't think there is the appetite for a radically changed roster with new positions.

I really dislike the current Amazon-Human balance. I'd change 'zons to make them the fast passing AG3 team - with faster players and less reliance on universal dodge.

Then humans would move a little bit more towards bash - so they'd still have a decent passing game with "proper" throwers & catchers - but be a little slower.

I don't want to change the mini mix - so it would be stats/costs/skills changes rather than new positionals - for both teams.

prisma · Post by **prisma** » Fri Mar 13, 2009 10:18 am

Actually, I think AV 8 catchers and 80k Blitzers are such a good thing that I wonder if it wouldn't be possible to let that get into lrb 6 ...

(would it ?)

plasmoid · Post by **plasmoid** » Fri Mar 13, 2009 10:33 am

I know the answer to that one

But as a house rule, and to make the change seem smaller:
Why not leave the blitzers price alone? He fits with other blitzers anyway.

Buff the catcher to AV8. From formula, that would make him 90K (with the standard 20K per skill). Then give him the price cut, putting him at 80K.

So - only change:
Human Catcher 80K 8238 dodge, catch GA

Al the Trowel · Post by **Al the Trowel** » Fri Mar 13, 2009 1:27 pm

ianwilliams wrote:
Al the Trowel wrote:How much of a larger reworking for Humans did you have in mind? I don't think there is the appetite for a radically changed roster with new positions.
I really dislike the current Amazon-Human balance. I'd change 'zons to make them the fast passing AG3 team - with faster players and less reliance on universal dodge.

Then humans would move a little bit more towards bash - so they'd still have a decent passing game with "proper" throwers & catchers - but be a little slower.

I don't want to change the mini mix - so it would be stats/costs/skills changes rather than new positionals - for both teams.

I think humans should retain their versatility - being competent at both bash and finesse (just not excelling at either). At the moment their resilience limits their bashiness - even against the finesse teams. A couple of lucky injuries against Skavs or Woodies and Humans really struggle. Improving the resilience of catchers will help that along with dropping the cost of the roster as a whole - so that they have depth on the bench. Moving them any further towards bash might make them look a bit too much like Norse. So you'd have the same problem just with a different team.

That makes me think that what you want is really an overhaul of the Zons to change their play style entirely. But I'm not sure there is a gap in the rosters for that type of team. Skaven are a fast passing team with mostly Ag 3. High Elves are there for a purist throwing game. The niche Zons occupy at the moment is low AV Ag 3 running game (arguably the same niche as Norse but achieved with a different skill mix). To make them more into a throwing team their throwers would need a boost - maybe Safe Throw? The catchers would need a speed bump. But its all the easy access to Blodge which makes them into a running team. Blitzers should lose Dodge and Ag access, though I think the linos should keep dodge to keep some of the existing character of the team. Maybe drop their move to 5 to make running play that bit more difficult.

Would this be completely stupid:
Catchers 7337 Dodge Catch GA/PS
Blitzers 7337 Block GS/AP
Linos 5337 Dodge GA/SP
Throwers 6337 Pass, Safe Throw GP/AS

mattgslater · Post by **mattgslater** » Fri Mar 13, 2009 3:00 pm

I think most Humans should run off of the default-average profile of 6/3/3/8.

@Ian: Orcs are average in your stats, I see, but you yourself have speculated that they lose an undetermined amount for the newbie effect. That was what I was referring to, and I think it's bigger than one would suspect. But yeah, I'm a little surprised that Orc teams are so firmly in the pack given their 15(!)) positionals. Maybe I have a bias because I tend to play medium-length fixed seasons, which are sort of optimal stomping ground for a team with lots of ST and most of the key starting skills.

prisma · Post by **prisma** » Fri Mar 13, 2009 3:25 pm

ianwilliams wrote: I really dislike the current Amazon-Human balance. I'd change 'zons to make them the fast passing AG3 team - with faster players and less reliance on universal dodge.

Then humans would move a little bit more towards bash - so they'd still have a decent passing game with "proper" throwers & catchers - but be a little slower.

I wouldn't like humans to get any slower (even if they became more bashy) - we already have norse for that.
Tinkering with the catcher's AG and the blitzer's price should be enough change for them.
In fact, their speed is one of the few things that makes humans at least somehow a little attractive.

I like the idea of fast passing 'zons. But when you say fast, then they should be indeed fast - I can't see MA 5 linos on a team that's meant to be a fast team. Rather, a diversity of human teams - 'standard' humans as anchor, norse being bashier and slower, 'zons being faster - would look like more or less like this:

Amazons:
catchers with MA 8 (remember, they're only 2, and we want a team with enough speed to play a throwing game),
throwers with MA 7,
blitzers with MA 7,
linos with MA 6 or better MA 7.

what I have in mind is:

catchers 8 3 3 7 catch, diving catch
blitzers 7 3 3 7 block, jump-up
throwers 7 3 3 7 pass, safethrow
linos ... [to be debated]

That would make the core of a fast passing team.

mattgslater · Post by **mattgslater** » Fri Mar 13, 2009 3:50 pm

Or give the throwers Nerves. More in-your-face. I'd like to see straight Hobgob linos with 60k TRRs and two types of Blitzers (a la Darkies), but nothing good comes to mind.

0-16 Hobgo... er... Thra... er... Linewoman 40k
0-2 Catcher 8/3/3/7 Catch, Diving Catch GA 90k
0-2 Blitzer 7/3/3/7 Block, Jump Up GS 90k
Some other scary hitter type (6/3/3/8 Grab, Wrestle GS 80k?) and a Thrower, or 0-4 Blitzers and a more aggressive P-access player, like a Runner or a Priestess (maybe the one below?).
60k TRR

Ooh... a few elements could be taken out of this a la carte; the lino is just theme-driven. Note the ST2 Catcher. This is because this chick shouldn't ever have to throw a block, with all the Wrestle and Hypnogaze. The 4x DC and lack of passing skills on the P-access player suggests a potential HMP avenue for interested parties. The NoS linewoman would play into that, having a distinct edge on bouncing balls.
0-16 Linewoman 6/3/3/7 Nerves of Steel G 50k
0-4 Catcher 8/2/3/7 Diving Catch, Dodge GA 70k (ST2 -- too small to start with NOS).
0-2 Blitzer 7/3/3/7 Block, Nerves of Steel, Wrestle GS 90k
0-2 Guardian 6/3/3/7 Block, Frenzy, Jump Up GS 90k
0-2 Priestess 6/3/3/7 Hypnotic Gaze, Nerves of Steel GP 80k
50k TRR

Not dodgy, not super fast. Certainly not beefy. But have fun pinning them down.

Al the Trowel · Post by **Al the Trowel** » Fri Mar 13, 2009 4:13 pm

I know MV 5 linos was a bit of an odd suggestion but there was logic to it. Giving them Dodge maintains some of the character of the current team, but restricting their speed limits the usefulness of turning them into blodge blitzers or ball carriers.

Grumbledook · Post by **Grumbledook** » Fri Mar 13, 2009 4:32 pm

women are slower than men as well ;]

Joemanji · Post by **Joemanji** » Fri Mar 13, 2009 5:07 pm

I'm amazed at people questioning 80K Blitzers.

I always compare them to Orc Blitzers. They are the exact mirror: +1 MA, Block and ST access on a lino. Or +/- one MA and one AV on each other. Yet Humans are 90K and Orcs 80K. This might seem sacred, but its only because AV is undervalued in JJ's cost formula. The Orc Blitzer is actually better IMO, since higher AV means less injuries = more progression & less need to replace them. So the extra 10K on Human Blitzers hits you twice (at least) - once when you buy them, and another when you have to replace the player more often.

Or another way: Replace the 4 Human Blitzers on the team with 4 Gutter Runners, 4 Wights, 4 High Elf Catchers or 4 Black Orcs. Would the team be better or worse? I know what I'd prefer. And the GRs and BOBs are actually cheaper ...

Joe

Jural · Post by **Jural** » Fri Mar 13, 2009 6:54 pm

I originally mentioned the newbie effect in this thread, but there were a few straw men raised to get rid of the argument.

However, I think the entire Blood Bowl community will agree on the following premises:

1) Players new to the game win less frequently than players who are experienced.

2) Players new to the game play humans and orcs more frequently than experienced players.

Therefore, it stands to reason that there is risk that the human and orc stats are skewed by the "new player effect."

But by how much? I honestly have no idea. Blood Bowl could have a very small proportion of rookie coaches contributing to the data. the discrepancy between new coaches and rookie coaches could be lower than I estimate, and many leagues may force rookie coaches to play a large percentage of their games against other rookies, which would minimize any "new player effect."

But it's a definite possibility that the human teams and orc teams are "better than they look." It's also true that this "better" may only translate into 0.1% in the real world, so not be an effect!