"open" leagues VS championships

[narg]

Do teams perform differently in open leagues and in championships? Did someone do some number crunching on the win/loss ratios of the different races in different settings?

I was wondering for example, agile teams who get slaughtered can do one or two easy games (VS goblins or other agile teams for example) to recover from a bad game in an open league, but in a championship they may be forced to play against for example two dwarf teams in a row and get completely slaughtered in the second game when they already have a few missing players.

How does it work out in high-TV championships? Anyone with that kind of experience out there?

[Hitonagashi]

For Leagues, if you want TV based, I have this data: http://hitonagashi.github.com/fumbbl_games/

It's generated off the BlackBox data, so it's TV matched. I'm also not ruling out math fails on my part, but it looks accurate enough. Koadah has a more up to date version somewhere, which I could dig up.

On FUMBBL, for championships there's Majors.

They aren't entirely representative, but you tend to find about 200 coaches playing in them, with usually 1500-2500 range teams, in a KO format.

The most surprising thing for me is, in the entire history of FUMBBL (which, to be fair is LRB 4 too), Lizardmen have never won a Major.

From the Major statistics thread:
FUMBBL majors’ champions (races)
Orc 8
CD 7
WE 6
DE 5
Dwarf 4
Chaos 3
Skaven 3
HE 2
Amazon 1
Elf 1
Nurgle 1
Ogre 1


FUMBBL majors’ finalists (races, including the above)
Orc 15
DE 14
WE 10
CD 9
Chaos 8
Dwarf 7
Skaven 6
HE 4
Amazon 2
Khemri 2
Lizardmen 2
Elf 1
Necro 1
Nurgle 1
Ogre 1
Pact 1


FUMBBL majors’ top-8 appearances (races, including the above)
Orc 60
DE 59
Chaos 36
WE 35
CD 26
Dwarf 24
Skaven 18
HE 13
Human 12
Undead 10
Elf 8
Lizardmen 8
Amazon 7
Khemri 6
Necro 4
Ogre 3
Nurgle 2
Norse 1
Pact 1
Slann 1
UW 1
Vampire 1

Again, these numbers contain lots and lots of LRB 4 data(such as the Ogre win, with a 12 ogre team, and the Khemri finalists), so your milage may vary! My BB data is all LRB 6 though.

[dode74]

What do you mean by "championship"? A straight knock-out tournament?

[narg]

Well, I play a lot in "open" leagues, where you can choose your opponents. This allows you to alternate bash and agile, and to play against lower-TV teams when you have too many casualties.

By "championship" I mean 10 or 20 games in one go where your opponents are detemined in advance, at the start of the season, and you have to play them in a specific order.

[dode74]

So a round-robin tournament, then?

This is OCC (a round robin league of 9 games per season followed by promotion/relegation) data comparing win% with points won as a percentage of maximum total points:

9779 games were included.

You can probably compare the win% there with the win% in FUMBBL which Hitonagashi gave you the link to, or you can find here: http://www.cmanu.pwp.blueyonder.co.uk/b ... stats.html
Although that will be comparing with a BlackBox environment rather than with an open league in the manner you describe. I don't have data for an open league like you describe, which would be Ranked on FUMBBL or FOLCL on Cyanide (FOLCL data should be forthcoming in a week or so, but it won't be more than a couple of hundred games at best yet). Hito or Koadah may be able to get the Ranked data for the comparison you want.

[narg]

Thanks Dode!

"Round-robin tournament", didn't know the term...

I must say I'm surprised by the poor performance of the Norse and Amazons, I guess that low armor with pre-determined opponents isn't a good combo...

Surprised as well to see high elves on top, above dark elves and even wood elves.

I never understood the high win/loss ratio of lizardmen, I don't think I ever lost against them (apart from one game but I was playing ogres and the guy was succeeding at passes with skinks and dodges with saurus without break tackle), the SPPs tend to be hogged by the skinks who die fast and the saurus progress way too slowly and often don't even have Block, even after lots of games...

I thought that dwarves and skaven would be way higher as well, below 50% is surprising.

[Hitonagashi]

I never understood the high win/loss ratio of lizardmen, I don't think I ever lost against them (apart from one game but I was playing ogres and the guy was succeeding at passes with skinks and dodges with saurus without break tackle), the SPPs tend to be hogged by the skinks who die fast and the saurus progress way too slowly and often don't even have Block, even after lots of games...

Easy. Inducements.

Look at it this way...in a perpetual league, you know your rough TV of your next opponent. Lizardmen are possibly the best race in the game for using inducements when they are the underdog, and one of the best at resisting them as the overdog.

I got promoted 2 divisions in my first 2 seasons in FUMBBL's White Isle League, which is scheduled, and came near winning the Premiership with a 1300 Lizzie TV team (I think I won 5/6, then played chaos, took several perms, got bashed off the pitch, and then struggled to survive in my last 3).

I've yet to lose a game where I could take Morg and Silibili with full saurii/krox (I've played that about 5 times). 7 ST 4 players, 1 ST 5, 1 ST 6, and 2 fast moving skinks is seriously gnarly. Even against devoted bashers, the fact that basically your entire team is ST 4 makes it almost unplayable, and for Elves, it's a nightmare to break through your lines to get at the squishies in the middle. Leap/Strip is countered by the fact that Morg can hold the ball, and with Sili's guard, it's a -3d!

Wizards are great with skinks (pop the ball anywhere, combined with 3+ to go anywhere).

In short, as long as you don't just take every SPP you can get, and skill all your skinks to level 5 because you can, Lizzies are a great race.



While you can maintain 6 saurii and a Krox, and not skill your skinks, Lizardmen are very potent.

[spubbbba]

[quote="HitonagashiWhile you can maintain 6 saurii and a Krox, and not skill your skinks, Lizardmen are very potent.[/quote]

Well I think that is part of the reason why Lizardmen have never won a major. In LRB4 you only had 1 admittedly very good star to pick from, a team with him, a guard Krox, 6 skilled Saurus and maybe an AG4 or sure hands skink was a force to be reckoned with.

The trouble was they were very hard to get to that stage as Saurus were so hard to skill up and during the competition they’d invariable lose a saurus or 2 and would then start to struggle.

I don't think anyone has done any serious effort collating FUMBBL league stats. It would be quite a lot of work since they have not been crp very long and there are quite a few modified leagues that would skew data so need to be removed.

[dode74]

Bear in mind that coach ability will have a fair amount of influence on those stats. Remove Pidpad's High Elves from the stats and they drop to 55.75%; remove Tigga's Lizards and they drop to 51.76%. You can do the same with poor records, of course, but the fact that coaches tend to stick with a team will skew things.

[Sandwich]

Bear in mind that coach ability will have a fair amount of influence on those stats. Remove Pidpad's High Elves from the stats and they drop to 55.75%; remove Tigga's Lizards and they drop to 51.76%. You can do the same with poor records, of course, but the fact that coaches tend to stick with a team will skew things.

I can probably account for why dwarves, wood elves, and to an extent (pro) elves are lower than they should be

[Jimmy Fantastic]

Those stats needupdating now, 2 Majors for Nurgle, Carnis won CoS too!

[narg]

I'd like to come back on Hitonogashi's stats here. In Norse VS the various elf teams it shows a clear Norse domination, as I would expect, except against wood elves at higher TV. Does it make sense? Or is it due to the low sample and distorted by one good / lucky coach? Also, slanns don't seem to do well against wood elves. It doesn't make sense to me. The Norse have two weaknesses: low armor and lack of access to claw, but that's not a problem against wood elves as they tend not to hit back and they have AV7; it's easy for the norse to get fairly quickly lots of tackle and mighty blow so such games should be a slaughter (I know for sure that when I play my Norse against elves it's always a slaughter). The slanns have diving tackle all over the place as well as very long legs which cancels out safe throw. I thought that both teams were designed to take out elves and that their win/loss ratio would be very high in these match-ups, which doesn't seem to be the case.

Does it make sense in your experience or is it just flawed stats?